Tag Archives: Hurricane Priscilla

Hurricane Priscilla Starts to Weaken

Hurricane Priscilla started to weaken on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 111.5°W which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Hurricane Priscilla started to weaken on Tuesday evening after Priscilla had strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale earlier in the day.  Hurricane Priscilla appeared to have mixed cooler water to the surface of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  A large eye with a diameter of 50 miles (80 km) was still present at the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  However, the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye was broken in several places.  Also, many of the thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Priscilla had weakened.  The bands in the eastern part of Priscilla’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Hurricane Priscilla.

The circulation around Hurricane Priscilla was still large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Hurricane Priscilla.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Priscilla was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.9.

Hurricane Priscilla will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  An upper level trough near the west coast of the U.S. will start to produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Priscilla’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to begin to increase.  In addition, the cooler water mixed to the surface of the ocean by Priscilla’s winds will limit the energy transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere.  The effects of cooler water and increasing vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Priscilla to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Priscilla will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Baja California on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Octave weakened far to the southwest of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 118.0.°W which put the center about 750 miles (1205 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Hurricane Priscilla Moves South of Baja California

Hurricane Priscilla moved south of Baja California on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 108.5°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Priscilla was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.

Hurricane Priscilla was showing evidence of intensification on Monday evening.  New tall thunderstorms were forming just to the south of the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  Microwave satellite imagery was indicating that an eye might be forming at the center of Hurricane Priscilla.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.  Storms near the center of Priscilla generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Priscilla was very large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) in the eastern side of Priscilla’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the western side of Priscilla.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Priscilla.

Hurricane Priscilla will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Priscilla will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla could strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Priscilla will move closer to the southern part of Baja California on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Hurricane Octave weakened back to a tropical storm on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 120.4°W which put the center about 840 miles (1355 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Priscilla and Octave Intensify to Hurricanes

Former Tropical Storms Priscilla and Octave both intensified to hurricanes over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 107.1°W which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Priscilla was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Priscilla intensified to a hurricane southwest of Mexico on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Hurricane Priscilla.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Priscilla’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Priscilla generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Hurricane Priscilla.  Hurricane force winds extended out 40 miles in the southeastern quadrant of Priscilla’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Hurricane Priscilla.

Hurricane Priscilla will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Priscilla will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Priscilla could strengthen to a major hurricane by Tuesday.

Hurricane Priscilla will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Priscilla slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Priscilla will move south of Baja California on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, former Tropical Storm Octave also intensified to a hurricane on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Octave was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 123.3°W which put the center about 995 miles (1600 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Octave was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.