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Tropical Storm Fengshen Moves Toward Vietnam

Tropical Storm Fengshen moved toward Vietnam on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 112.2°E which put the center about 290 miles (465 km) east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam.  Fengshen was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Drier air was pulled around the western and southern sides of Tropical Storm Fengshen on Monday.  Bands in the western and southern sides of Fengshen’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of Tropical Storm Fengshen.  Storms near the center of Fengshen still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained relatively constant on Monday.

The circulation around the northern side of Tropical Storm Fengshen was interacting with a high pressure system over China.  So, tropical storm force winds extended out much farther in the northern half of Fengshen.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Fengshen.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the southern half of Fengshen’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South China Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Drier air will continue to be pulled around the northern and western sides of Fengshen’s circulation.  The drier air will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Fengshen is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over China.  The high pressure system will steer Fengshen toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fengshen will approach the coast of Vietnam near Da Nang in 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Fenshen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to central Vietnam.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Moves over South China Sea

Tropical Storm Fengshen moved over the South China Sea on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 117.0°E which put the center about 405 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Hong Kong.  Fengshen was moving toward the northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Fengshen started to strengthen after it moved over the South China Sea on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the center of Fengshen’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen.  Storms near the center of Fengshen generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fengshen was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Fengshen’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South China Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  There is drier air to the northwest of Fengshen, but the drier air is likely to remain outside of the tropical storm on Monday.  Tropical Storm Fengshen will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fengshen toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fengshen will move toward Hainan.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Brings Wind and Rain to Philippines

Tropical Storm Fengshen brought wind and rain to the Philippines on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 122.0°E which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines.  Fengshen was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Fengshen was maintaining its intensity as it brought wind and rain to the Philippines on Saturday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain on parts of Luzon.  Those same bands of thunderstorms were also producing gusty winds.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fengshen.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern half of Fengshen’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Fengshen were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea on Sunday.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Fengshen is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours while it moves across Luzon.  Fengshen will intensify when it moves over the South China Sea on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fengshen toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fengshen will move across Luzon during the next 12 hours.  Fengshen will move over the South China Sea on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Luzon during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The weather in Luzon will start to improve later on Sunday when Tropical Storm Fengshen moves farther away.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Forms East of Philippines

Tropical Storm Fengshen formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Friday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 127.4°E which put the center about 250 miles (400 km) east of Legaspi, Philippines.  Fengshen was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Friday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Fengshen.

Thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Fengshen’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fengshen began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is south of Japan.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fengshen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Fengshen will intensify during the next 24hours.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fengshen toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Fengshen will move near the coast of southeastern Luzon on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Fengshen will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Phanfone Moves Away from the Philippines

Typhoon Phanfone moved away from the Philippines on Wednesday after bringing wind and rain to the central Philippines.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 118.3°E which put it about 190 miles (310 km) west-southwest of Manila, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Typhoon Phanfone weakened earlier on Wednesday.  The core of Phanfone moved over southern Mindoro and the typhoon weakened when the circulation was disrupted by the mountains.  Satellite imagery suggested that the circulation around Typhoon Phanfone might be reorganizing on Wednesday night.  A small circular eye reappeared on visible satellite images.  Thunderstorms in the eyewall were growing taller.  Storms around the core of Phanfone were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) north of the center of circulation and out 20 miles (30 km) south of the center.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Phanfone.

Typhoon Phanfone will move through an environment capable of supporting a typhoon for another 24 hours.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  In about 24 hours Typhoon Phanfone will reach an area where winds near the surface are blowing from the northeast.  Those winds will bring drier air which will get pulled into the circulation around Phanfone.  Typhoon Phanfone will weaken when the drier air enters its circulation.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Typhoon Phanfone will move across the South China Sea and it will move farther away from the Philippines.

Typhoon Phanfone Hits Panay Island

Typhoon Phanfone hit Panay Island on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 11.9°N and longitude 121.8°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of San Jose, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

The eye of Typhoon Phanfone passed over the northern coast of Panay Island on Tuesday.  The southern part of the eyewall affected Roxas City, Kalibo and Ibajay.  Strong winds and heavy rain moved over the northern coast of Panay.  The northern eyewall was over Tablas Island and the northwestern part of the eyewall reached southeastern Mindoro.  Gusty winds may reach Roxas and San Jose on Mindoro.  Heavy rain was falling over over Tablas Island and southeastern Mindoro.

Typhoon Phanfone strengthened slightly even though parts of the eyewall moved over some of the islands in the central Philippines.  The core of Phanfone remained intact and there was a small circular eye at the center of the typhoon.  The strongest winds were occurring in a ring of thunderstorms around the eye.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km).  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Phanfone was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.5.

Typhoon Phanfone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Phanfone could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane if the core of the circulation passes south of Mindoro.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Island.  The high will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Phanfone will pass near the southern end of Mindoro during the next few hours.  The center will pass near Busuanga Island and Culion Island before Phanfone moves over the South China Sea.  Typhoon Phanfone will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Roxas, San Jose and Coron.  Heavy rain on Tablas Island, southern Mindoro, Busuanga Island and Culion Island could cause flash floods.  Floods are most likely on southern Mindoro because of the steep slopes near mountains.  Conditions will improve over Panay Island as Phanfone moves farther away.

Strengthening Typhoon Phanfone Makes Landfall in Central Philippines

A strengthening Typhoon Phanfone made landfall in the central Philippines on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 124.1°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) southeast of Placer, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west-northwest at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

Typhoon Phanfone strengthened quickly as it made landfall in the central Philippines.  A small circular eye became more distinct on  satellite imagery.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center.  The Hurricane intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Phanfone was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.8 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.6.

The center of Typhoon Phanfone made landfall near Guiuan on Samar.  The center of Phanfone passed near Tacloban on Leyte before it moved over the Visayan Sea.  Typhoon Phanfone brought strong winds and heavy rain to Samar and Leyte.  The winds were strong enough to cause serious damage and regional power outages.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Phanfone moved through a favorable environment that allowed to strengthen.  Phanfone moved over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 29°C.  It moved through a region where the upper level winds were weak and there was little vertical wind shear.  The core of Phanfone moved quickly over narrow portions of Samar and Leyte and the core remained intact.  Typhoon Phanfone could strengthen while the enter moves across the Visayan Sea and it could intensify into the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days.  The ridge will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Phanfone will pass near Masbate and the northern end of Panay Island.  Phanfone could be near Mindoro in about 12 hours.  Typhoon Phanfone will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Masbate, the northern end of Panay Island, the northern end of Negros and Mindoro.  Conditions will improve gradually when Phanfone moves away from Samar and Leyte.

Phanfone Strengthens to a Typhoon, Closing in on Central Philippines

Former Tropical Storm Phanfone strengthened to a typhoon as it closed in on the central Philippines on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Phanfone was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 126.9°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) east of Guiuan, Philippines.  Phanfone was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Typhoon Phanfone strengthened on Monday.  The circulation became more symmetrical and an eye began to form at the center of Phanfone.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Phanfone.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the typhoon.  The circulation around Typhoon Phanfone was relatively small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Typhoon Phanfone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Phanfone will continue to intensify until it makes landfall in the central Philippines.  Phanfone will begin to weaken when the center moves over land.  It could regain some strength while the center passes over the Visayan Sea.

Typhoon Phanfone will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On it anticipated track the center of Typhoon Phanfone will pass over southern Samar near Guiuan in a few hours.  The core of Phanfone will also pass near Tacloban and northern Leyte.  Typhoon Phanfone will move over the Visayan Sea before moving near Roxas City and northern Panay Island.

Typhoon Phanfone will bring strong winds to southern Samar, Leyte and northern Panay Island.  Phanfone will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.  Typhoon Phanfone could produce a storm surge of six feet (two meters) along portions of the coast where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Tropical Storm Phanfone Churns Toward the Philippines

Tropical Storm Phanfone churned toward the Philippines on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Phanfone was located at latitude 9.7°N and longitude 133.5°E which put it about 525 miles (850 km) east-southeast of Guiuan, Philippines.  Phafone was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Phanfone exhibited greater organization on Sunday night.  More thunderstorms developed around the center of circulation.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands northwest of the center.  Bands in other parts of the circulation had fewer storms and consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms near the center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northern half of Phanfone and out 40 miles (65 km) on the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Phanfone will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear diminished during recent hours.  The shear will slow the rate of intensification, but it will not be strong enough to keep Phanfone from intensifying.  Tropical Storm Phanfone will continue to intensify and it could strengthen into a typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Phanfone will move south of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Phanfone could reach the central Philippines within 36 hours.  Phanfone could be a typhoon by the time it approaches Samar.

Tropical Storm Phanfone Forms East of Palau

Tropical Storm Phanfone formed east of Palau on Saturday night.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Phanfone was located at latitude 8.2°N and longitude 138.3°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east of Koror, Palau.  Phanfone was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The center of circulation in an area of low pressure east of Palau became more well defined on Saturday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Phanfone.  The circulation around Phanfone was still organizing and the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern part of the tropical storm.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Phanfone consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Storms in the northwestern part of Phanfone began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northwest of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Phanfone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Those upper level winds are contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the wind shear will inhibit intensification.  However, the wind shear could diminish during the next day or two.  Tropical Storm Phanfone will gradually intensify and it could strengthen into a typhoon within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Phanfone will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Phanfone will pass north of Palau on Sunday.  It could approach the center Philippines within 60 hours.  Phanfone could be a typhoon when it gets to the Philippines.