Tag Archives: Palau

Typhoon Surigae Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Surigae rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 131.6°E which put it about 220 miles (330 km) northwest of Palau. Surigae was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Typhoon Surigae rapidly intensified on Friday as it moved farther away from Palau. A small circular eye was present at the center of circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Surigae. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon in all directions. The removal of mass allowed the pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Typhoon Surigae increased in size on Friday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Surigae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Surigae was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9. Surigae was a large, dangerous typhoon capable of causing major damage.

Typhoon Surigae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Surigae will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. However, the winds at lower levels in the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Surigae will likely continue to intensify during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Surigae to weaken.

Typhoon Surigae will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Surigae toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. After that time Typhoon Surigae will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Typhoon Surigae could be east of the Philippines in 36 hours.

Surigae Strengthens to Typhoon North of Palau

Former Tropical Storm Surigae strengthened to a typhoon north of Palau on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 8.9°N and longitude 134.2°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) north of Palau. Surigae was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb. A weather station at the international airport on Palau reported a sustained wind speed of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 m.p.h. (118 km/h). There were reports of trees down and of wind damage on Palau.

Typhoon Surigae was intensifying more rapidly on Thursday night. Microwave satellite images showed an eye forming at the center of Surigae. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The strongest rainbands were still in the western half of Typhoon Surigae, but more thunderstorms were developing in bands in the eastern half of the circulation. Storms near the center of Surigae were producing strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Typhoon Surigae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center.

Typhoon Surigae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. Surigae will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. However, the winds at lower levels in the atmosphere will also blow from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Surigae will continue to intensify and it could strengthen rapidly once an inner core is fully formed. Surigae could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane in 24 hours.

Typhoon Surigae will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next few days. The high will steer Surigae toward the west-northwest during the next two days. After that time Typhoon Surigae will move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track Typhoon Surigae could be east of the Philippines in 48 hours. Conditions on Palau will improve gradually on Friday when Surigae moves farther away.

Tropical Storm Surigae Strengthens Northeast of Palau

Tropical Storm Surigae strengthened northeast of Palau on Wednesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Surigae was located at latitude 9.1°N and longitude 136.2°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-southwest of Yap. Serigae was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Surigae strengthened on Wednesday, but the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Surigae. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms west of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Surigae.

Tropical Storm Surigae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days. Surigae will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 30°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Surigae will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a typhoon within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Surigae will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next few days. The high will steer Surigae toward the west-northwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Surigae will pass north of Palau during the next 36 hours. Surigae could be east of the Philippines by late this week.

Tropical Storm Phanfone Forms East of Palau

Tropical Storm Phanfone formed east of Palau on Saturday night.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Phanfone was located at latitude 8.2°N and longitude 138.3°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east of Koror, Palau.  Phanfone was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The center of circulation in an area of low pressure east of Palau became more well defined on Saturday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Phanfone.  The circulation around Phanfone was still organizing and the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern part of the tropical storm.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Phanfone consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Storms in the northwestern part of Phanfone began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northwest of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Phanfone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Phanfone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Those upper level winds are contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the wind shear will inhibit intensification.  However, the wind shear could diminish during the next day or two.  Tropical Storm Phanfone will gradually intensify and it could strengthen into a typhoon within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Phanfone will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Phanfone toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Phanfone will pass north of Palau on Sunday.  It could approach the center Philippines within 60 hours.  Phanfone could be a typhoon when it gets to the Philippines.

Tropical Storm Teraji Develops East of Vietnam

Tropical Storm Teraji developed east of Vietnam on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Teraji was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 110.1°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Lien Huong, Vietnam.  Teraji was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in an area of thunderstorms over the South China Sea east of southern Vietnam on Saturday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Teraji.  The circulation around Teraji was exhibiting evidence of vertical wind shear.  The center of circulation was on the eastern edge of a cluster of thunderstorms.  Tropical Storm Teraji was south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands west of the center of circulation, which was likely an effect of the wind shear.

The ridge north of Tropical Storm Teraji will steer the tropical storm westward into southern Vietnam.  On its anticipated track Teraji will move over southern Vietnam on Sunday.  Tropical Storm Teraji will move across southern Cambodia early next week.  Thunderstorms in rainbands in the western half of Teraji could drop locally heavy and floods could occur in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Depression 34W formed southeast of Palau.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression 34W was located at latitude 6.6°N and longitude 135.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southeast of Palau.  It was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts tot 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Jelawat Forms Near Yap

Tropical Storm Jelawat formed near Yap on Sunday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Jelawat was located at latitude 7.6°N and longitude 138.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south of Yap.  Jelawat was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low level center of circulation formed near the eastern edge of a cluster of thunderstorms near Yap on Sunday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Jelawat.  Tropical Storm Jelawat does not have a well organized circulation.  There is a distinct low level center of circulation, but most of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring west of the center of circulation.  The bands in the eastern half of the circulation consist mainly of showers and low clouds.  An upper level ridge over the Central North Pacific Ocean is producing strong easterly winds which are blowing across the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating strong vertical wind shear and the shear is the main reason for the asymmetrical distribution of storms.

Tropical Storm Jelawat will be moving through an environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  Jelawat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to cause vertical wind shear.  If the shear is not too strong and the circulation remains vertically coherent, then Tropical Storm Jelawat could strengthen during the next several days.   Some models predict this scenario and forecast that Jelawat will intensify into a typhoon.  Alternatively, if the wind shear increases further, strong upper level winds could blow the upper half of the circulation away from the lower level circulation.  If that occurs, Tropical Storm Jelawat will weaken.

The ridge over the Central North Pacific is steering Tropical Storm Jelawat toward the northwest.  Jelawat will reach the western end of the ridge in 12 to 24 hours.  The tropical storm will turn more toward the north when it reaches the end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Jelawat is forecast to pass between Yap and Palau.

Tropical Storm Sanba Develops Near Palau

Tropical Storm Sanba developed near Palau on Sunday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Sanba was located at latitude 7.2°N and longitude 133.5°E which put it about 20 miles (35 km) south-southwest of Koror, Palau.  Sanba was moving toward the west at 19 m.p.h. (31 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation of former Tropical Depression 02W and the Japan Meteorological Agency classified the system as Tropical Storm Sanba.  The distribution of storms was asymmetrical.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands west of the center of circulation.  The bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Sanba is moving south of a strong upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing easterly winds which are causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear is causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Storm Sanba will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification.  Sanba will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, the upper level ridge will continue to generate moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Storm Sanba could get a little stronger during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The ridge is steering Tropical Storm Sanba toward the west and a general westerly motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Sanba could approach Mindanao in the southern Philippines in about 36 hours.  Sanba could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the southern Philippines.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Storm Lan Develops Northwest of Palau

Tropical Storm Lan developed northwest of Palau on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Lan was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 132.1°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north-northwest of Koror, Palau.  Lan was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A more distinct center of circulation developed within Tropical Storm Lan, but the low pressure system was still in the process of organizing.  The low level center of circulation of Lan was at the end of a long rainband that extends from the western periphery around the southern and eastern parts of the tropical storm.  That low level center appeared to be on the northern side of a much larger counterclockwise rotation.  Most of the stronger showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the long rainband.  A few new, thinner bands of showers and thunderstorms seemed to be forming inside the long rainband to west of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Lan will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  Lan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge north of Lan is producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  There was some vertical wind shear, but it was not strong enough to prevent the intensification of Tropical Storm Lan.  Tropical Storm Lan is likely to intensify more slowly while the circulation organizes.  Once the center of circulation become tighter, then Lan could intensify more quickly.  A period of rapid intensification could occur, if Lan becomes a typhoon and an eye develops.

The ridge north of Lan and the counterclockwise flow to its south are combining to steer the tropical storm toward the west.  Numerical models are indicating that a weakness will develop in the ridge north of Tropical Storm Lan.  If that happens, then the steering current could weaken for 12 to 24 hours and Tropical Storm Lan might not move much.  If the break in the ridge becomes more pronounced, then Tropical Storm Lan could start to move more toward the north.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lan is expected to remain east of the Philippines, but the tropical storm could move closer to the northern Philippines if the forecast weakness in the ridge does not occur.

TD 03W Intensifies Into Tropical Storm Muifa

Tropical Depression 03W intensified into Tropical Storm Muifa on Tuesday as it moved slowly northwest of Yap.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Muifa was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 134.6°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) northwest of Yap.  Muifa was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Muifa is not well organized.  There is a well defined low level center.  However, almost all of the showers and thunderstorms are in a cluster east of the low level center.  There are almost no showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  Few well defined rainbands are evident in the eastern half of the circulation.  The cluster of thunderstorms east of the center of circulation is generating some upper level divergence which appears to be pumping mass out to the northwest of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Muifa will be moving through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification.  Muifa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature will be near 29.5°C.  A subtropical ridge east of Muifa is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Muifa is currently south of the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Muifa is currently in a region where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear is moderate.  Areas of stronger vertical wind shear surround the tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Muifa could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours before it reaches an area where the shear is stronger.

Tropical Storm Muifa is moving around the western end of the subtropical ridge to its east and the steering winds are weak.  As a result Muifa is moving slowly toward the west-northwest.  A gradual turn toward the north is forecast as Tropical Storm Muifa moves around the end of the ridge.  Muifa will reach an area of westerly winds as it moves farther north and the tropical storm is forecast to recurve toward the northeast.

Tropical Depression 03W Forms Northwest of Yap

Tropical Depression 03W formed northwest of Yap on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression 03W was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 135.2°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) northwest of Yap.  The depression was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A cluster of thunderstorms developed southeast of the Marianas during the weekend.  The cluster moved slowly toward the west-northwest and the circulation gradually exhibited signs of greater organization.  Satellite imagery indicated that a center of circulation formed in the lower levels of the circulation and the system was designated as Tropical Depression 03W on Monday.

The circulation of Tropical Depression 03W is still organizing.  Although there is a distinct low level center, the distribution of showers and thunderstorms is asymmetrical.  Many of the showers and thunderstorms are forming east of the center of circulation.  There are few showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the circulation.  Thunderstorms just to the east of the center of the circulation are generating some upper level divergence that is pumping out mass to the west and north of the center of circulation.

Tropical Depression 03W will be moving through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature will be near 30°C.  A ridge of high pressure east of the depression is producing easterly flow that is blowing toward the depression.  The flow may be pushing the lower part of the circulation to the west of the middle and upper portions.  Vertical wind shear could be an inhibiting factor.  Some intensification is forecast during the next day or two and the depression could intensify into a tropical storm.

The ridge of the depression is steering it toward the west.  The depression is expected to turn toward the northwest when it reaches the western end of the depression in a day or so.