Typhoon Kalmaegi brought wind and rain to parts of the Philippines on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 10.6°N and longitude 125.6°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) east of Abuyog, Philippines. Kalmaegi was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.
Typhoon Kalmaegi continued to strengthen as it approached the central Philippines on Monday. A small circular eye developed at the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Kalmaegi. Storms neat the center of Kalmaegi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The distribution of wind speeds around Typhoon Kalmaegi was symmetrical. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Kalmaegi was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.5. Typhoon Kalmaegi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.
Typhoon Kalmaegi will weaken when the center of circulation passes over the central Philippines. Kalmaegi will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it reaches the Sulu Sea on Tuesday. Kalmaegi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kalmaegi’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Typhoon Kalmaegi will start to intensify again when it reaches the Sulu Sea.
Typhoon Kalmaegi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Kalmaegi toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kalmaegi will move through the central Philippines during the next 24 hours. The center of Kalmaegi will pass near southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, northern Negros, and Panay Island. Typhoon Kalmaegi will pass near northern Palawan on Tuesday.
Typhoon Kalmaegi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the central Philippines. The strongest winds and heaviest rain will occur at Dinagat Island, southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, northern Negros, Panay Island, and northern Palawan. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Typhoon Kalmaegi could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.
