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Tropical Cyclone Narelle Moves over Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Narelle has passed over the Cape York Peninsula and Narelle is now over the Gulf of Carpentaria.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.4°S and longitude 140.3°E which put the center about 260 miles (420 km) east of Alyangula, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast of the Northern Territory from Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur.  A Warning also remains in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Cape Keerweer.  That Warning includes Weipa.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Watch for the portion of the coast of the Northern Territory from west of Nhulunbuy to Ramingining.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle weakened as it moved across the central part of the Cape York Peninsula.  However, the circulation around Narelle was still intact.  A well defined center of circulation was visible on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  A little drier air did appear to be pulled into the southwestern part of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle decreased as Narelle weakened.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to intensify again during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will coast of the Northern Territory in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Northern Territory heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Narelle will also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Top End of Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Hits Cape York Peninsula

Tropical Cyclone Narelle hit the Cape York Peninsula northwest of Cape Melville on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.4°S and longitude 142.5°E which put the center about 50 miles (85 km) northwest of Coen, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula that is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Melville.  The Warning includes Coen.  A Warning is also in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw.  That Warning includes Weipa.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria from south of Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Narelle weakened after it moved over the Cape York Peninsula, the circulation around Narelle was still intact.  A well defined center of circulation was visible on satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was still very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.1. Tropical Cyclone Narelle is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will continue to weaken during the next few hours while the center is over the Cape York Peninsula.  Narelle will move into an environment favorable for intensification when it moves over the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to intensify again when it moves over the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move over the Gulf of Carpentaria in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula during the next few hours.  Narelle will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Nears Cape York Peninsula

Tropical Cyclone Narelle was nearing the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 144.9°E which put the center about 230 miles (370 km) north of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula that is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.  The Warning includes Coen and Cooktown.  A Warning is also in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw.  That Warning includes Weipa.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria from south of Nhulunbuy to Port Mcarthur.

A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle increased on Wednesday night.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle is 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 50.0.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will hit the coast of Queensland northwest of Cape Melville in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula.  Narelle will be capable of causing severe damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast near where the center of circulation makes landfall.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 147.2°E which put the center about 265 miles (425 km) north-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula that is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.  The Warning includes Coen and Cooktown.  A Warning is also in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw.  That Warning includes Weipa.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria from south of Nhulunbuy to Port Mcarthur.

A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.2.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Narelle is bigger than Harvey was.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Narelle will be capable of causing severe damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast near where the center of circulation makes landfall.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Prompts Warning for Cape York Peninsula

The risks posed by Tropical Cyclone Narelle prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Warning for part of the Cape York Peninsula on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 149.9°E which put the center about 420 miles (675 km) northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the coast of Queensland that was in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Weipa to Kowanyama.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle was strengthening as it moved toward the coast of Queensland.

A small circular eye was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to  tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.0.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Narelle strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved over the Coral Sea on Tuesday evening.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 12.4°S and longitude 153.3°E which put the center about 600 miles (970 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch that was in effect for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Lockhart River to Port Douglas.  The Watch extended across the central Cape York Peninsula to the Gulf of Carpentaria.  The Watch was in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Weipa to Kowanyama.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  A small eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the Coral Sea.   The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Queensland near Cape Melville in 35 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula later this week.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor Threaten Australia

Tropical Cyclones Veronica and Trevor posed threats to Australia on Wednesday night.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday off the coast of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 117.6°E which put it about 275 miles (445 km) north-northwest of Port Hedland, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the south-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 929 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Pardoo to Mardie including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica intensified very rapidly during the past 24 hours.  Veronica strengthened from the equivalent of a tropical storm to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  A small pinhole eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica had a large circulation.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 200 miles (320 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Veronica was 29.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.4.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will remain in an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones for several more days.  Veronica will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane during the next 24 hours.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause fluctuations in the intensity of Veronica.

Tropical Cyclone Veronica will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will steer Veronica toward the south-southwest.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica could move toward the south-southeast after it rounds the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Veronica could approach the coast of Western Australia in about three days.  Veronica could be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor moved over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 141.1°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) southwest of Weipa, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the southwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minium surface pressure was 988 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the coast from Nhulunbuy to Karumba.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was gradually reorganizing as the center moved farther into the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Trevor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will intensify during the next 48 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane.  On its anticipated track Trevor is forecast to approach the southwest of the Gulf of Carpentaria near Port McArthur in about 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Trevor brought wind and rain to northern Queensland on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor was located at latitude 13.1°S and longitude 141.9°E which put it about 35 miles (55 km) south of Weipa, Australia.  Trevor was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning remained in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Cape York to Pormpuraaw.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Tropical Cyclone Watch for the east coast of the Northern Territory from Nhulunbuy to the border between the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor made landfall on the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula near Lockhart River on Tuesday.  Trevor was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor moved slowly westward across the peninsula to a position south of Weipa.  Trevor brought strong gusty winds and dropped locally heavy rain over the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor weakened steadily while it move over land.  The eye filled with lower clouds and the number of strong thunderstorms around the core and in the rainbands decreased.  However, the circulation remained intact.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor retained a well defined low level circulation with a distinct tight center.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria in a few hours.  Trevor will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Trevor is likely to intensify when it moves back over water.  It could intensify rapidly once an eye and an eyewall redevelop at the core of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Trevor could strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move around the northwestern part of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge will continue to steer Trevor toward the west for another day or so.  After that time Tropical Cyclone Trevor will move more toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Trevor could reach the east coast of the Northern Territory in about 72 hours.  It is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane at that time.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Veronica developed quickly off the coast of Western Australia on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Veronica was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 119.5°E which put it about 630 miles (1015 km) northeast of Learmonth, Australia.  Veronica was moving toward the west-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.  Tropical Cyclone Veronica is also forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a major hurricane and it could approach the coast of Western Australia in about four days.

Tropical Low Prompts Warning for Northern Queensland

A tropical low over the Gulf of Carpentaria prompted the issuance of warnings and watches for northern Queensland on Thursday.  A Tropical Cyclone Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mapoon to Karumba.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Karumba to the border between Queensland and the Northern Territory including Mornington Island.

At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of the tropical low was located at latitude 13.0°S and longitude 139.9°E which put it about 135 miles (220 km) west of Weipa, Australia.  It was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The circulation around the tropical low exhibited more organization on Thursday.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing over the Gulf of Carpentaria.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away in outflow channels to the northwest and southeast of the tropical low.

The tropical low will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The tropical low will be in an area where the upper level winds are weaker and the vertical wind shear will be limited.  The tropical low is likely to intensify during the next 24 to 36 hours and it is forecast to become a named tropical cyclone.

The tropical low is under the northeastern portion of an upper level low.  It is in a small region where the steering winds are weaker and the tropical low meandered over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday.  Northerly winds blowing around the upper level low are forecast to steer the tropical low toward the south during the next day or two.  On its anticipated path the tropical low is expected to move over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria near the coast of Queensland.  If the tropical low follow its anticipated track, it will make landfall on the south coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria in about 48 hours.  However, any eastward deviation would bring the tropical low inland over Queensland much sooner.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Riley strengthened northwest of Australia.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Riley was located at latitude 16.5°S and longitude 118.8°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  Riley was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.  A Tropical Cyclone Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Whim Creek to Onslow, Australia including Karratha and Dampier.

Tropical Cyclone Penny Forms Over Gulf of Carpentaria

Tropical Cyclone Penny formed over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Penny was located at latitude 12.7°S and longitude 140.9°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) west of Weipa, Australia.  Penny was moving toward the east-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Tropical Cyclone warming was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape York to Pormpuraaw including adjacent coast areas.

A tropical low over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria strengthened on Monday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Penny.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Penny was still organizing.  A band of showers of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Penny.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Penny could strengthen during the next few hours.  Penny will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.   It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weaker and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Penny will make landfall on the Cape York Peninsula near Weipa in about 12 hours.  Penny will weaken while it crosses northern Queensland.  Tropical Cyclone Penny could strengthen again when it moves over the Coral Sea in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Penny will move south of a ridge centered northeast of Australia.  The ridge will steer Penny in an east-southeasterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Penny will make landfall on the Cape York Peninsula near Weipa in about 12 hours.  Penny could emerge over the Coral Sea south of the Lockhart River in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Penny will bring rain and wind to the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula.  Penny will drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Queensland.  The heavy rain could cause flooding.  A Flood Watch is in effect for coastal catchments north of Caldwell, Australia and the Cape York Peninsula.