Tropical Cyclone Narelle was nearing the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula on Thursday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 144.9°E which put the center about 230 miles (370 km) north of Cairns, Australia. Narelle was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula that is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation. The Warning includes Coen and Cooktown. A Warning is also in effect for the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula from Mapoon to Pormpuraaw. That Warning includes Weipa.
A Watch is in effect for the portion of the west coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria from south of Nhulunbuy to Port Mcarthur.
A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was present at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation. Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle increased on Wednesday night. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle is 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 50.0. Tropical Cyclone Narelle is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit southwest Louisiana in 2020.
Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the northern part of the Coral Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Narelle could intensify during the next few hours.
Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will hit the coast of Queensland northwest of Cape Melville in a few hours.
Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the northern part of the Cape York Peninsula. Narelle will be capable of causing severe damage. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Narelle could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast near where the center of circulation makes landfall.
Flood Watches are in effect for parts of the Cape York Peninsula and the North Tropical Coast of Queensland.