Tropical Cyclone Alfred moved south over the Coral Sea on Friday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 155.7°E which put the center about 450 miles (725 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred was showing signs of weakening as it moved south over the Coral Sea on Friday.  There was still an eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) at the center of Alfred’s circulation, but the eye was not as distinct on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Alfred appeared to be becoming a little more asymmetrical.  There were more thunderstorms in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Alfred’s circulation.  There appeared to be fewer thunderstorms in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Storms near the center of Alfred continued to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  However, the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Alfred’s circulation was equal to the upper level divergence.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Friday.

The size of circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred decreased a little on Friday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (325 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Alfred is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 19.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.8.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is similar in intensity to Hurricane Jeanne when Jeanne hit Florida in 2004.  Alfred is not as large as Jeanne was.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Alfred to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will a little closer to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland early next week.