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Tropical Storm Koto Develops Over Sulu Sea

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Tropical Storm Koto developed over the northern Sulu Sea on Tuesday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Koto was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) northwest of Coron, Philippines.  Koto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the northern Sulu Sea strengthened on Tuesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Koto.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Koto exhibited more organization on Tuesday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Koto’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Koto.  Storms near the center of Koto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Koto was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern side of Koto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Koto.

Tropical Storm Koto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Koto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Koto will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Koto will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Koto toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Koto will move over northern Palawan.  Koto will move over the South China Sea on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Palawan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Palawan.  Koto will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Busuanga Island, Culion Island, Linapacan Island and the Calamian Group of islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding in some locations.

Typhoon Kalmaegi Moves over the Sulu Sea

Typhoon Kalmaegi moved over the Sulu Sea on Tuesday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi was located at latitude 10.5°N and longitude 121.3°E which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Taytay, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Typhoon Kalmaegi weakened as it moved across the central Philippines on Monday.  An eye was no longer visible on satellite images.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern half of Typhoon Kalmaegi.  Bands in the northern half of Kalmaegi’s circulation contained fewer thunderstorms.  Storms near the center of Kalmaegi still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the typhoon.  However, there was more mass converging in the lower levels of the atmosphere than there was mass diverging in the upper levels.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Kalmaegi decreases as Kalmaegi weakened.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (170 km) from the center of Typhoon Kalmaegi.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kalmaegi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Kalmaegi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Kalmaegi could start to intensify again during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kalmaegi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Kalmaegi will pass near northern Palawan in a few hours.  Kalmaegi will move over the South China Sea on Tuesday night.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Palawan and the Calamian Group of islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 32W formed south of the Marianas.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression 32W was located at latitude 9.5°N and longitude 142.7°E which put the center about 285 miles (460 km) south-southwest of Guam.  The tropical depression was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.  It is forecast to strengthen.