A Tropical Storm Warning and a Storm Surge Warning were issued for the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday because of the threat posed by Hurricane Erin. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 26.1°N and longitude 72.5°W which put the center about 655 miles (1050 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Erin was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light, Virginia.
After weakening on Monday night, Hurricane Erin was exhibiting signs of strengthening on Tuesday afternoon. The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the northern side of the center of Erin’s circulation. There was some evidence on satellite images to indicate that a new eye could be forming at the center of Hurricane Erin. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Erin’s circulation. Storms near the core of Erin started to generate more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.
The circulation around Hurricane Erin is large. Winds to hurricane force extend out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 205 miles (330 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.6. Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav in 2008.
Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Erin will intensify during the next 24 hours. Erin could strengthen back to a major hurricane.
Hurricane Erin will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will be southeast of Cape Hatteras on Wednesday night.
The large circulation around Hurricane Erin will produce large waves that will move toward the east coast of the U.S. Erin could cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter) along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island. The large waves are likely to cause significant beach erosion. The large circulation around Hurricane Erin could also bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks.