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Tropical Cyclone Ialy Weakens Near Kenya and Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Ialy weakened near the coast of Kenya and Somalia on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 2.9°S and longitude 42.7°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) northeast of Mombasa, Kenya and about 170 miles (275 km) south of Kismayo, Somalia. Ialy was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Westerly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ialy pulled drier air from east Africa into its circulation. The drier air was pulled around Ialy’s circulation and some of the drier air reached the center of Ialy. The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Ialy to dissipate. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern part of Ialy’s circulation. Upper level divergence decreased when the thunderstorms dissipated. The decrease in upper level divergence caused mass to accumulate at the surface and the surface pressure increased. Tropical Cyclone Ialy weakened rapidly during Tuesday night when the surface pressure increased. Ialy weakened from the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon to the equivalent of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air will continue to be pulled from east Africa into Ialy’s circulation. The drier air will cause the remaining thunderstorms to dissipate. Tropical Cyclone Ialy will to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours. The circulation around Ialy could dissipate during the next day or so.

As the remaining thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Ialy dissipate, Ialy will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain off the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia. Ialy could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Ialy strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near the coast of Kenya and southern Somalia on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 4.3°S and longitude 42.9°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Mombasa, Kenya. Ialy was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy strengthened on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion indicated that Ialy had intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. The center of Ialy’s circulation was at latitude 4.3°S, which demonstrates again that it is possible for a strong tropical cyclone to occur near the Equator if the environment is favorable. There is no record of another tropical cyclone occurring where Ialy is located in databases going back to 1945.

A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Some satellite images showed evidence of a small eye at the center of Ialy’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Ialy was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to pull drier air from east Africa toward its circulation. So far, the drier air has remained outside of Ialy’s circulation, but the drier air could start to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of Ialy. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move toward the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal sections of northern Kenya and southern Somalia. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Ialy could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Moves Southeast of Kenya

Tropical Cyclone Ialy moved southeast of Kenya on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 5.5°S and longitude 43.7°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) east-southeast of Mombasa, Kenya. Ialy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy exhibited a more symmetrical structure on Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms were occurring in all quadrants of Ialy’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to remain low.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to pull drier air from east Africa toward its circulation. The drier air could start to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the northern part of Ialy’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain south of Kenya.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy Churns East of Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Ialy churned over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 7.2°S and longitude 45.1°E which put it about 405 miles (650 km) east of Dar es Salaam, Tanzaniar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was completely surrounded by drier air, but the drier air had not penetrated the core by Sunday morning. Thunderstorms were still occurring in the inner ends of bands near the center of Ialy’s circulation. The outer portions of bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Ialy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air surrounding the core of Ialy’s circulation will inhibit formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to weaken during the next 24 hours after the drier air penetrates the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain east of Tanzania. Ialy could move east of Kenya on Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar Brings Wind and Rain to Djibouti, Western Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Sagar brought wind and rain to Djibouti and Western Somalia on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sagar was centered at latitude 10.1°N and longitude 43.4°E which put it about 100 miles (165 km) south-southeast of Djibouti City, Djibouti.  Sagar was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar made landfall on the coast of northwestern Somalia near Bullaxaar on Saturday.  Sagar was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall.  It moving south of an upper level ridge which was generating easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring west of the center of circulation, which was probably due to the vertical wind shear.

Thunderstorms in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Sagar may have produced wind gusts to near hurricane force when Sagar made landfall on the coast of northwestern Somalia.  The gusts were capable of causing minor wind damage.  Sagar may have generated a storm surge of 4 to 8 feet (1.2 to 2.4 meters) near where the center made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Sagar was dropping heavy rain on parts of extreme western Somalia and Djibouti.  The heavy rain was capable of producing flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Sagar has a small circulation and Sagar will likely weaken quickly as moves inland into drier air over eastern Africa.  Even though it will weaken quickly, Sagar could also drop heavy heavy over parts of eastern Ethiopia and flash floods could occur in that region.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala Weakens Northeast of Madagascar

Thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala dissipated and it weakened as moved northeast of Madagascar.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT  on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fantala was located at latitude 11.5°S and longitude 54.5°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) east of Antsirañana, Madagascar.  Fantala was moving west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala reversed course again on Saturday and it is moving over the same part of the South Indian Ocean that it already crossed twice during the past few days.  The winds produced by Fantala mixed cooler water up to to the surface of the ocean during its previous passages over the same region.  The cooler water means that there is less energy available to power the circulation of Tropical Cyclone.  Although the winds continue to rotate around the center of circulation, there are no thunderstorms near the core of Fantala.  There are still several thunderstorms in rainbands farther to the east of the center of circulation.

If new thunderstorms do not develop around the core of the circulation, the winds will gradually spin down and the tropical cyclone will dissipate within a few days.  Upper level winds blowing from the west-northwest are also generating some vertical wind shear, which will make it more difficult for new thunderstorms to form.

A subtropical ridge southwest of Fantala is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Fantala is forecast to pass north of Madagascar and move over the Seychelles.  It could be even weaker by the time it gets to the Seychelles.