Tag Archives: Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Tej Makes Landfall in Eastern Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Tej made landfall in eastern Yemen on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tej was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 52.0°E which put it about 25 miles (400 km) southwest of Nishtun, Yemen. Tej was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tej made landfall on the coast of eastern Yemen between Nishtun and Qishn on Monday afternoon. Tej weakened as it approached the coast of Yemen. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Tej’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tej was 11.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 23.0. Tropical Cyclone Tej was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit south Texas in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Tej was capable of causing regional minor damage. Tej will produce strong winds and locally heavy rain over eastern Yemen and far western Oman. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will weaken steadily when it moves into the dry environment over eastern Yemen.

Tropical Cyclone Tej Moves Toward Eastern Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Tej moved over the Arabian Sea toward eastern Yemen on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tej was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 54.0°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) south of Salalah, Oman. Tej was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tej appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cyclone on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original small eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall dissipated on Sunday afternoon and a larger eye was apparent on satellite images. The new, larger eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Tej. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Tej went through an eyewall replacement cycle, its circulation was still small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tej’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tej was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.3. Tropical Cyclone Tej was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tej will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Tej will move closer to dry air over Yemen and Oman. Northerly winds in the western side of Tej’s circulation could start to pull the dry air into the tropical cyclone. The recently completed eyewall replacement cycle and the dry air could cause Tropical Cyclone Tej to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over South Asia. The high pressure system will steer Tej toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Tej will approach the coast of eastern Yemen near Nishtun in 24 hours. Tej will bring strong winds to eastern Yemen. Tropical Cyclone Tej will also drop heavy rain on parts of eastern Yemen and western Oman. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Tej Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Tej rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea east-southeast of Socotra on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tej was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 56.3°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) east-southeast of Socotra. Tej was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tej rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea on Saturday. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) formed at the center of Tej’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tej was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Tej’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tej was 22.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 28.1. Tropical Cyclone Tej was capable of causing localized major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tej will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tej could continue to intensify rapidly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over South Asia. The high pressure system will steer Tej toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Tej will be east of Socotra in 12 hours. The core of Tej’s circulation that contains the strongest winds will pass east of Socotra. Bands in the western side of Tropical Cyclone Tej will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Socotra. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Tej will approach the coast between Harrah, Yemen and Salalah, in 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Forms Near Western Oman

A Tropical Depression formed over the Arabian Sea near the coast of western Oman on Friday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 54.2°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) southeast of Salalah, Oman.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a small low pressure system near the coast of western Oman on Friday and the India Meteorological Department classified the system as a depression.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of the depression.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression in all directions.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification if the center remains over water.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  The depression will be under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak.  There will be little vertical wind shear and the upper level ridge will enhance upper level divergence.  If the center of the tropical depression remains over the Arabian Sea, then it is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 to 48 hours.  If the center of circulation moves inland over western Oman and eastern Yemen, then intensification becomes much less likely.

The tropical depression will move under the upper level ridge and the steering winds will be very weak.  The depression is forecast to drift very slowly toward the west during the next several days,  The center of the depression could remain just off the coast or it could move slowly inland.  The slow movement of the depression will allow it to drop locally heavy rain over parts of western Oman and eastern Yemen.  The heavy rain could very likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Maha Reorganizes Southwest of Mumbai

Tropical Cyclone Maha reorganized over the Arabian Sea southwest of Mumbai, India on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mumbai was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 68.8°E which put it about 320 miles (520 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  Maha was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

After pulling drier air from India into the circulation and weakening on Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Maha appeared to be reorganizing on Friday afternoon.  Many of the thunderstorms in the rainbands weakened on Thursday.  A band of strong thunderstorms reformed on Friday and it was wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  The inner end of the rainband was wrapping closer to the center of the circulation and an inner core appeared to be reforming.  Storms in the band started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Maha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Maha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Maha will intensify during the next day or two and it is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Maha will move south of a ridge of high pressure over South Asia.  The high will steer Maha toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Maha will remain west of India during the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Arabian Sea,, Tropical Cyclone Kyarr meandered northeast of Somalia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 58.0°E whichput it about 355 miles (575 km) northeast of Socotra, Yemen.  Kyar was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr Weakens East of Oman

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr weakened east of Oman on Tuesday.  At 11:00 EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 62.0°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) east-southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.  Kyarr was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

The structure of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr exhibited less organization on Tuesday.  The southwestern part of the ring of thunderstorms around the eye weakened.  In addition, bands of showers and thunderstorms in the western half of Kyarr also weakened.  Two factors seemed to be contributing to the weakening trend.  Tropical Cyclone Kyarr moved slowly during the last 24 to 36 hours.  The circulation mixed cooler water to the upper levels of the Arabian Sea and Kyarr was not able to extract as much energy from the water.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr may have pulled drier air from the Arabian peninsula into the western half of the circulation.  Even though Kyarr weakened on Tuesday. winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will probably continue to weaken during the next several days.  Kyarr will move away from the cooler water it mixed to the surface and it will be in an area where there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  However, Tropical Cyclone Kyarr is likely to draw more drier air into the circulation.  The drier air will make it more difficult for thunderstorms to develop in rainbands around the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move south of a ridge of high pressure over southwest Asia.  The high is forecast to strengthen during next several days.  When the high strengthens it will steer Kyarr toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move parallel to the coast of Oman.  Kyarr could approach Socotra Island and Somalia in four or five days.

Tropical Cyclone Luban Makes Landfall in Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Luban made landfall in eastern Yemen near Nishtun on Sunday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 51.8°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Nishtun, Yemen.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.ph. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Luban consists of several bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving a center of circulation.  Most of the heavier rain is falling north and east of the center of circulation.  Drier air is flowing into the western part of the circulation and the showers are lighter in that part of Tropical Cyclone Luban.

Tropical Cyclone Luban was the equivalent of a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm at the time of landfall.  Luban will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland and more drier air enters the circulation.  However, rainbands in eastern half of the circulation could drop heavy rain over parts of Yemen and western Oman.  Heavy rain cold cause flash floods in some places.

Tropical Cyclone Titli Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Titli formed over the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 86.3°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  Titli was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct center of circulation formed within a large cluster of thunderstorms over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Titli.  The circulation of Titli was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming close to the center of circulation on the western side of the tropical cyclone.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming on the periphery of the eastern side of the circulation.  Storms near the center of Titli were starting to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Titli will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Titli will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation, but the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Titli is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Titli slowly toward the north-northwest during the next two days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Titli will make landfall on the coast of India near Brahmapur in about 36 hours.  Titli will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of northeastern India.  The strong winds will produce a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) at the coast.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding when Tropical Cyclone Titli moves inland.

Elsewhere over the northern Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Luban was gradually strengthening over the Arabian Sea.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 59.5°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Luban Forms Over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Luban formed over the Arabian Sea on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luban was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 61.4°E which put it about 580 miles (935 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Luban was moving toward the west-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Luban was still organizing.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands west of the center of circulation.  Rainbands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Luban consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  An upper level trough centered over northern India was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were probably the reason why the stronger thunderstorms were forming on the western side of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Luban will move through a region that is somewhat favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause some vertical wind shear, but the winds are expected to weaken during the next day or two.  Tropical Cyclone Luban is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Luban is between the upper level ridge over India and another upper level ridge over Saudi Arabia.  As a result the steering winds are weak and Luban is moving slowly toward the west-northwest.  When Tropical Cyclone Luban moves farther west, the upper ridge over Saudi Arabia will steer it in a west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Luban could approach western Oman and eastern Yemen in four or five days.

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Mekunu Lashes Western Oman

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Mekunu lashed western Oman late on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 53.7°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Salalah, Oman.  Mekunu was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mekunu intensified into the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday as it approached the coast of western Oman.  The circulation contracted around a small circular eye.  A well formed ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of strong thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Mekunu was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index was 31.9.  These indices indicate that Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is capable of causing regional major damage.

Winds near the core of Tropical Cyclone Mekunu will be capable of causing major damage near the coast of western Oman.  The rainbands revolving around the core will cause minor damage within 100 miles (160 km) of the center of Mekunu.  Strong winds near and east of the center of circulation will be capable of causing a storm surge of 9 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) at the coast.  Strong thunderstorms will drop heavy rain, especially in places where the air flows up slopes.  Significant flash flooding will be possible in normally arid locations.