Tag Archives: 04A

Tropical Cyclone Maha Reorganizes Southwest of Mumbai

Tropical Cyclone Maha reorganized over the Arabian Sea southwest of Mumbai, India on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mumbai was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 68.8°E which put it about 320 miles (520 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  Maha was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

After pulling drier air from India into the circulation and weakening on Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Maha appeared to be reorganizing on Friday afternoon.  Many of the thunderstorms in the rainbands weakened on Thursday.  A band of strong thunderstorms reformed on Friday and it was wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  The inner end of the rainband was wrapping closer to the center of the circulation and an inner core appeared to be reforming.  Storms in the band started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Maha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Maha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Maha will intensify during the next day or two and it is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Maha will move south of a ridge of high pressure over South Asia.  The high will steer Maha toward the northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Maha will remain west of India during the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Arabian Sea,, Tropical Cyclone Kyarr meandered northeast of Somalia.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 58.0°E whichput it about 355 miles (575 km) northeast of Socotra, Yemen.  Kyar was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Maha Forms Southwest of India

Tropical Cyclone Maha formed over the Arabian Sea southwest of India on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maha was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 73.3°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) southwest of Mangalore, India.  Maha was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure over the Arabian Sea west of the southern tip of India on Wednesday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Maha.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Maha was still organizing on Wednesday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and the bands were starting to revolve around the center of Maha.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation.  Some thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone, but the proximity to southern India may have been making the air a little drier in that part of Maha.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 80 miles (130 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Maha will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days.  Maha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move underneath the axis of an upper level ridge running east to west over India and the eastern Arabian Sea.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear during the next day or two.  Tropical Cyclone Maha will continue to intensify and it is forecast to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  Maha could strengthen more quickly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develop.

The middle portion of the upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Maha toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  When Maha reaches the northern Arabian Sea a second ridge of high pressure over South Asia will steer the tropical cyclone toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Maha will move parallel to the west coast of India.

Elsewhere over the Arabian Sea, Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was weakening rapidly southeast of Oman.  The circulation pulled drier air from the Arabian peninsula into the core of Kyarr and most of the thunderstorms dissipated when the drier air reached them.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 60.7°E which put it about 190 miles (305 km) southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.  Kyarr was moving toward the southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr Weakens East of Oman

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr weakened east of Oman on Tuesday.  At 11:00 EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was located at latitude 19.5°N and longitude 62.0°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) east-southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.  Kyarr was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

The structure of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr exhibited less organization on Tuesday.  The southwestern part of the ring of thunderstorms around the eye weakened.  In addition, bands of showers and thunderstorms in the western half of Kyarr also weakened.  Two factors seemed to be contributing to the weakening trend.  Tropical Cyclone Kyarr moved slowly during the last 24 to 36 hours.  The circulation mixed cooler water to the upper levels of the Arabian Sea and Kyarr was not able to extract as much energy from the water.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr may have pulled drier air from the Arabian peninsula into the western half of the circulation.  Even though Kyarr weakened on Tuesday. winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will probably continue to weaken during the next several days.  Kyarr will move away from the cooler water it mixed to the surface and it will be in an area where there will not be a lot of vertical wind shear.  However, Tropical Cyclone Kyarr is likely to draw more drier air into the circulation.  The drier air will make it more difficult for thunderstorms to develop in rainbands around the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move south of a ridge of high pressure over southwest Asia.  The high is forecast to strengthen during next several days.  When the high strengthens it will steer Kyarr toward the southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move parallel to the coast of Oman.  Kyarr could approach Socotra Island and Somalia in four or five days.

Intense Tropical Cyclone Kyarr Moves Toward Oman

Intense Tropical Cyclone Kyarr moved toward Oman on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 65.2°E which put it about 460 miles (745 km) east-southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.  Kyarr was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr remained very symmetrical on Sunday.  Microwave satellite images seemed to indicate that there were two symmetric eye eyewalls surrounding the center of Kyarr.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the larger core of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The formation of a second, outer eyewall caused the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr to increase in size.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was 31.6.  The Hurricane  Size Index (HSI) was 19.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.7.

The formation of concentric eyewalls indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle was in progress.  Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Even though Kyarr will move through an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones, it will likely weaken while the inner eyewall dissipates.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move south of a ridge of high pressure over South Asia.  The ridge will steer Kyarr in a westward direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kyarr could approach the coast of Oman in three or four days.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 68.6°E which put it about 705 miles (1135 km) east-southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.  Kyarr was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the past 36 hours.  A small eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr.  Storms near the core of Kyarr were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.1 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.2.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Kyarr will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Kyarr could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  An inner rainband could wrap around the eye and eyewall at some point.  That would start an eyewall replacement cycle which would cause Kyarr to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move south of a ridge of high pressure over South Asia.  The ridge will steer Kyarr toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move toward Oman.

Tropical Cyclone Forms Southwest of Mumbai

A tropical cyclone formed southwest of Mumbai, India on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04A was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 71.3°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  It was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed within a broad area of low pressure over the Arabian Sea west of India.  Thunderstorms were developing near the low level center.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming and the bands began to revolve around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 04A will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 to 72 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The tropical cyclone will move through a region where the upper level wind are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone 04A will continue to intensify and it is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 04A will move south of a high pressure system that extends from India across the northern Arabian Sea.  The high will steer the tropical cyclone in a west-northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 04A should start to move away from India during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone could approach Oman in about five days

Tropical Cyclone Chapala Makes Landfall in Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Chapala made landfall in Yemen just west of Al Mukalla as the equivalent of a hurricane.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 48.7°E which put it 30 miles (50 km) south of Al Mukalla, Yemen.  Chapala was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (170 km/).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala reached the western end of the ridge that was steering it toward the west and it turned north toward the coast of Yemen on Monday.  When Chapala reached the western end of the ridge, southerly winds in the upper levels generated vertical wind shear and the circulation of the tropical cyclone tilted toward the north.  In addition, as the core of the circulation neared the coast, it drew in drier air from the Arabian peninsula.  The combination of more wind shear and drier air started to weaken Chapala, but the tropical cyclone was still the equivalent of a hurricane when it made landfall.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Chapala will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast.  Although Chapala will weaken fairly quickly as it moves into the dry interior of the Arabian peninsula, the circulation will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash floods as the tropical cyclone spins down.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala Poised to Enter Gulf of Aden

Tropical Cyclone Chapala continued to move steadily westward on Sunday and it was poised to enter the Gulf of Aden.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 52.2°E which put it about 230 miles (370 km) east-southeast of Al Mukalla, Yemen.  Chapala was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Chapala is still a very well organized tropical cyclone and it is the equivalent of a major hurricane.  Chapala has a 25 mile (40 km) wide eye, which is surrounded by numerous thunderstorms.  Those storms are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out enough mass to balance the air flowing into the center near the surface.  The balance of inflow and outflow allowed Chapala to maintain its intensity on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is around 28.5°C and the upper level winds are light.  There is little vertical wind shear and most environmental factors support the ability of Tropical Cyclone Chapala to maintain its intensity.  However, once Chapala enters the Gulf of Aden it will have very dry air to its north over the Arabian peninsula and dry air to its south over east Africa.  Chapala will remain a strong tropical cyclone as long as the dry air does not reach its core.  However, as Tropical Cyclone Chapala moves closer to the coast of Yemen, the drier air will probably cause it to start to weaken.

A ridge north of Chapala is steering the tropical cyclone toward the west.  Chapala will reach the western end of the ridge on Monday and the tropical cyclone will turn toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Chapala will make landfall on the coast of Yemen near Al Mukalla in 24 to 30 hours.  It will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast.  Chapala is likely to dissipate quickly as it moves inland over the Arabian peninsula, but it could bring heavy rain and flash floods before it does so.

Strong Tropical Cyclone Chapala on Track for Landfall in Yemen

Strong Tropical Cyclone Chapala moved steadily westward on Saturday and it remains on track for a landfall in Yemen.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 56.0°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) south-southeast of Salalah, Oman and about 465 miles (765 km) east of Al Mukalla, Yemen.  Chapala was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 135 m.p.h. (215 km) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Chapala continues to be a strong well organized tropical cyclone and it is the equivalent of a major hurricane.  It has a symmetrical circulation with a well formed eye inside a core of thunderstorms.  Multiple rainbands are rotation around the center of circulation.  Upper level divergence is pumping out mass in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala remains in a favorable environment.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  There is not much vertical wind shear and Chapala could maintain its intensity until it approaches the coast of Yemen.  When Chapala gets nearer the coast, it will start to pull in drier air from the Arabian peninsula.  As Chapala ingests the drier air, it will start to weaken.

A ridge north of Chapala is steering the tropical cyclone westward.  As Chapala nears the western end of the ridge, it will start to turn more toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Chapala will approach the central coast of Yemen in 36 to 48 hours.  The core of Chapala will pass north of the island of Socotra on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala Becomes Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Chapala intensified rapidly on Friday and it became the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chapala was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 59.9°E which put it about 405 miles (655 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.  Chapala was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chapala is a very well organized tropical cyclone.  It has a well defined eye and a strong core of thunderstorms around the eye.  Those storms generated upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the surface pressure to fall rapidly.

Chapala is an environment favorable for tropical cyclones.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  So, there is little vertical wind shear.  However, a secondary eyewall may be developing and eyewall replacement cycles could cause fluctuations in intensity for the next day or two.  When Chapala approaches the Arabian peninsula, it will start to pull in very dry air, and that will weaken the tropical cyclone even before it makes landfall.

A subtropical ridge is steering Chapala toward the west and that general steering motion is expected to continue for another 36 to 48 hours.  As Chapala reaches the western end of the ridge, it could turn more toward the northwest.  Tropical Cyclone Chapala could be approaching the coast of Yemen in 48 to 60 hours.