Intense Tropical Cyclone Kyarr Moves Toward Oman

Intense Tropical Cyclone Kyarr moved toward Oman on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 65.2°E which put it about 460 miles (745 km) east-southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.  Kyarr was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr remained very symmetrical on Sunday.  Microwave satellite images seemed to indicate that there were two symmetric eye eyewalls surrounding the center of Kyarr.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the larger core of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The formation of a second, outer eyewall caused the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr to increase in size.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was 31.6.  The Hurricane  Size Index (HSI) was 19.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.7.

The formation of concentric eyewalls indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle was in progress.  Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Even though Kyarr will move through an environment favorable for strong tropical cyclones, it will likely weaken while the inner eyewall dissipates.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move south of a ridge of high pressure over South Asia.  The ridge will steer Kyarr in a westward direction during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kyarr could approach the coast of Oman in three or four days.