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Severe Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Nears Gujarat

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tauktae neared the Indian state of Gujarat on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 71.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was passing just to the west of Mumbai, India on Sunday night. The core of Tauktae contracted on Sunday as the tropical cyclone continued to intensify. The diameter of the circular eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae shrank to 14 miles (22 km). The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (75 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3. Tauktae was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle begins. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tauktae to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the Tauktae toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Maharastra and Gujarat. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 12 hours. Tauktae is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will be capable of producing severe damage in Gujarat. Tauktae could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the coast of Gujarat. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea south of Mumbai, India on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 72.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae continued to intensify on Sunday. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tauktae. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tauktae increase in size on Sunday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.2. Tauktae was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is likely to continue to intensify during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the Tauktae toward the north-northwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will pass west of Mumbai, India. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Maharastra and Gujarat. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 24 hours. Tauktae is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will be capable of producing major damage in Gujarat. Tauktae could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the coast of Gujarat. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Arabian Sea south of Mumbai on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 72.8°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae strengthened steadily on Saturday and it intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tauktae and an eye was visible on the India Meteorological Department’s radar at Goa and on satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the western portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours. Since an inner core with an eye and an eyewall has developed, rapid intensification could occur.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the western side of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will pass west of Mumbai, India. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Karnataka, Goa and Maharastra. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 36 hours. Tauktae could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 01A formed over the southeastern Arabian Sea on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 73.3°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) south of Mumbai, India, Philippines. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

An area of low pressure strengthened into a tropical cyclone over the southeastern Arabian Sea on Friday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A. Thunderstorms were also increasing in bands revolving around the center of the tropical cyclone. The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern side of the tropical cyclone were dropping locally heavy rain and producing high waves along the coasts of Kerala and Karnataka. Storms near the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the system. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move the western portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone 01A will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours. Once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops, rapid intensification could occur.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move around the western side of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A will stay west of India during the weekend. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India. Tropical Cyclone 01A could move over the northern Arabian Sea by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Nisagra Makes Landfall South of Mumbai

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga made landfall south of Mumbai, India on Wednesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 73.3°E which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Tuesday night before it made landfall on the west coast of India.  An eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of Nisarga.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga at the time of landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga brought winds to hurricane/typhoon force to a portion of the west coast of India south of Mumbai.  Those winds would have pushed water toward the coast.  The would have generated a storms surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) near where the center of Nisarga made landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will drop heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Nisarga Nears Mumbai

Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Nisarga neared  Mumbai, India on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 72.4°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga strengthened quickly on Tuesday night as it moved closer to the west coast of India.  An eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Nisarga.  Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move around the western end of a high pressure system over India.  The high will steer Nisarga toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will make landfall on the west coast of India south of Mumbai in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will continue to intensify until it makes landfall.  Nisarga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered over India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Nisarga.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will bring strong winds to the west coast of India.  Those winds will push water toward the coast and they could cause a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) near Mumbai and near where the center makes landfall.  Nisarga will also drop heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga Develops West of India

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga developed west of India on Tuesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 16.0° and longitude 71.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Arabian Sea west of India strengthened on Tuesday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Nisarga.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Nisarga.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nisarga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered over India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Nisagra.  Nisagra could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move around the western end of a high pressure system over India.  The high will steer Nisarga toward the north during the next 12 hours.  Nisarga will move more toward the north-northeast when it moves around the northwestern part of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Nisarga could approach Mumbai in about 24 hours.  Nisarga could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Mumbai.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mumbai on Wednesday.  Nisarga could also cause a storm surge of  3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in the area around Mumbai where the wind blows the water toward the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra and southern Gujarat.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

Two Tropical Cyclones Churn over the Arabian Sea

Two tropical cyclones churned over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06A was located at latitude 7.4°N and longitude 57.6°E which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east of Eyl, Somalia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 07A was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 69.1°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 06A exhibited more organization on Tuesday night.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  There were more thunderstorms in bands in the northern half of the tropical cyclone, but thunderstorms were forming in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (185 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 06A will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge centered over southern India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, and the wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 06A will likely strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 06A is currently in an area where the steering winds are weak and it moved little on Tuesday.  A second ridge of high pressure is forecast to build north of the tropical cyclone during the next several days.  The second ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone 06A toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 06A could approach the coast of Somalia in three days.

Tropical Cyclone 07A developed more quickly on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of circulation.  Another band of strong thunderstorms formed in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center or circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 07A will also move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  The upper level ridge centered over southern India will also produce southerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear around Tropical Cyclone 07A.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 07A is also likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

The ridge over southern India will steer Tropical Cyclone 07A toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 07A will move roughly parallel to the west coast of India.

Weakening Tropical Cyclone Maha Moves Back Toward India

A weakening Tropical Cyclone Maha moved back toward India on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maha was located at latitude 19.8°N and longitude 66.7°E which put it about 425 miles (690 km) west of Mumbai, India.  Maha was moving toward the east at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

An upper level trough over southwest Asia was producing westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Maha.  Those winds were creating strong vertical wind shear which was causing Maha to weaken steadily.  Tropical Cyclone Maha weakened to the equivalent of a tropical storm on Tuesday night.  There was no longer an eye at the center of Maha.  Thunderstorms were forming in rainbands east of the center of circulation.  Bands in the other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

The westerly winds were also steering Tropical Cyclone Maha back toward India.  On its anticipated track Maha could approach the coast of India between Mumbai and Diu in about 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Maha is likely to have weakened to the equivalent of a tropical depression by the time it nears the coast.

Vertical Wind Shear Starts to Weaken Tropical Cyclone Maha

Increased vertical wind shear started to weaken Tropical Cyclone Maha over the Arabian Sea on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maha was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 63.7°E which put it about 605 miles (1140 km) west of Mumbai, India.  Maha was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Upper level westerly winds of the middle latitudes moved southward over the northern Arabian Sea on Monday night.  Those winds caused increased vertical wind shear and they started to weaken Tropical Cyclone Maha.  The westerly winds began to push the higher clouds toward the east and the eye was no longer visible on infrared satellite imagery.  It also appeared that westerly winds lower in the atmosphere may have been transporting drier air toward the western side of Maha.  The rainbands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Maha weakened on Monday night and there also appeared to be weakening in the southern part of the eyewall.  The strongest rainband was north of the center of circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Maha was fairly small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 95 miles (150 km) from the center.  The small size of Tropical Cyclone Maha means it will weaken more quickly because of the effects of vertical wind shear and drier air.  Maha could weaken to the equivalent of a tropical storm within 24 to 30 hours.

The westerly winds will push Tropical Cyclone Maha back east toward India.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Maha could approach the coast of India north of Mumbai within three days.  Maha will be a much weaker tropical cyclone by the time it nears India.