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Tropical Cyclone Hamoon Brings Wind and Rain to Bangladesh

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon brought wind and rain to Bangladesh on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was located at latitude 21.1°N and longitude 91.5°E which put it about 110 miles (170 km) southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Hamoon was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon brought wind and rain to Bangladesh on Tuesday. An upper level trough over India was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hamoon’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear was tilting the upper part of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon to the northeast of the lower part of Hamoon’s circulation. The upper part of Hamoon’s circulation was over southern Bangladesh on Tuesday. Rain was falling on southern Bangladesh.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hamoon was 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.7. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit south Texas in 2008.

The upper level trough over India will steer Tropical Cyclone Hamoon toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Hamoon will cross the coast of Bangladesh near Chittagong in a few hours. Hamoon will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain in southern and eastern Bangladesh. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast of Bangladesh. Hamoon will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of eastern India.

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Bay of Bengal on Monday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 89.5°E which put it about 230 miles (390 km) southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Hamoon was moving toward the northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Bay of Bengal on Monday evening. A small circular eye formed at the center of Hamoon’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hamoon’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was 11.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.3. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Isaias when Isaias hit North Carolina in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Hamoon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over India. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hamoon’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent additional intensification. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon could intensify during the next 12 hours. The upper level southwesterly winds will get stronger later on Tuesday. The stronger upper level winds will increase the vertical wind shear. Hamoon could start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

The upper level trough over India will steer Tropical Cyclone Hamoon toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hamoon will move approach the coast of Bangladesh in 24 hours. Hamoon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Bangladesh. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast of Bangladesh.

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon Forms over Northern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon formed over the northern Bay of Bengal on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon was located at latitude 18.7°N and longitude 87.6°E which put it about 390 miles (630 km) southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh. Hamoon was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the northern Bay of Bengal intensified on Monday morning and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Hamoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hamoon’s circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon. Bands in the southern half of Hamoon’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Hamoon. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern part of Hamoon’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Hamoon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hamoon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over India. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Hamoon’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent some intensification. Tropical Cyclone Hamoon could intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over India will steer Tropical Cyclone Hamoon toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hamoon will move toward Bangladesh. Hamoon will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Bangladesh later this week. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Makes Landfall in Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Mandous made landfall in southern India on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 80.4°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Chennai, India. Mandous was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous made landfall on the coast of southern India between Chennai and Puducherry on Friday. Mandous moved into a mass of drier air and weakened prior to landfall. Tropical Cyclone Mandous was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Mandous’ circulation. The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Mandous.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous move farther inland over southern India during the next 24 hours. Mandous will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland. Tropical Cyclone Mandous will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Puducherry, northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Strengthens over Southwest Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened over the southwestern Bay of Bengal on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 10.7°N and longitude 81.9°E which put it about 215 miles (345 km) southeast of Chennai, India. Mandous was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened on Thursday. Even though Mandous was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms continued to be asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Mandous’ circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Mandous consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms west of the center of Mandous generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is already contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the shear will inhibit intensification. The western side Tropical Cyclone Mandous will interact with a mass of drier air over India, when Mandous gets closer to the coast of India. A combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to cause Mandous to begin to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous will be near the coast of southern India near Chennai in 24 hours. Mandous will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Puducherry, northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. Tropical Cyclone Mandous will also drop heavy rain over northern Sri Lanka. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Forms over Southwest Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Mandous formed over the southwestern Bay of Bengal east of Sri Lanka on Wednesday afternoon. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 83.8°E which put it about 360 miles (580 km) southeast of Chennai, India. Mandous was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the southwestern Bay of Bengal strengthened on Wednesday afternoon and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Mandous. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Mandous was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Mandous’ circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Mandous consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms west of the center of Mandous generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms and the shear will inhibit intensification. The vertical wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification during the next 24 hours and Tropical Cyclone Mandous could strengthen during that time period.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous could be near the coast of southern India near Chennai in 48 hours. Mandous could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Puducherry, northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Pawan Near Landfall in Somalia

Tropical Cyclone Pawan neared a landfall on the coast of Somalia near Eyl on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Pawan was located at latitude 8.0°N and longitude 50.2°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Eyl, Somalia.  Pawan was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Pawan strengthened on Friday as it neared the coast of Somalia.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and in bands revolving around the center.  Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase.  Pawan was a relatively small tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Pawan will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over North Africa.  The high will steer Pawan toward the west during the next 12 to 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Pawan will make landfall on the coast of Somalia near Eyl during the next few hours.  Pawan will bring gusty winds, and locally heavy rain will create the potential for flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Pawan will weaken quickly when it moves into drier air over eastern Africa.

Two Tropical Cyclones Churn over the Arabian Sea

Two tropical cyclones churned over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06A was located at latitude 7.4°N and longitude 57.6°E which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east of Eyl, Somalia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 07A was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 69.1°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 06A exhibited more organization on Tuesday night.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  There were more thunderstorms in bands in the northern half of the tropical cyclone, but thunderstorms were forming in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (185 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 06A will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge centered over southern India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, and the wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 06A will likely strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 06A is currently in an area where the steering winds are weak and it moved little on Tuesday.  A second ridge of high pressure is forecast to build north of the tropical cyclone during the next several days.  The second ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone 06A toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 06A could approach the coast of Somalia in three days.

Tropical Cyclone 07A developed more quickly on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of circulation.  Another band of strong thunderstorms formed in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center or circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 07A will also move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  The upper level ridge centered over southern India will also produce southerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear around Tropical Cyclone 07A.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 07A is also likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

The ridge over southern India will steer Tropical Cyclone 07A toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 07A will move roughly parallel to the west coast of India.

Tropical Cyclone 06A Forms over Western Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06A formed over the western Arabian Sea on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06A was located at latitude 6.7°N and longitude 56.1°E which put it about 420 miles (620 km) east-southeast of Eyl, Somalia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 06A was still organizing on Monday night and the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Satellite images suggested that the upper levels of the circulation were tilted to the north of the surface circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 06A was near the western end of an upper level ridge centered over southern India.  The ridge was producing southerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear,  The wind shear was causing the apparent tilt of the circulation with height and it was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone 06A will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear during the next several days.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  If the vertical wind shear remains moderate, Tropical Cyclone 06A could continue to intensify slowly.  However, if the wind shear increases, then the shear could be strong enough to weaken the tropical cyclone.  The forecast is for slight intensification of Tropical Cyclone 06A during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The ridge centered over southern India will steer Tropical Cyclone 06A toward the north during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 06A will move parallel to the coast of Somalia during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The tropical cyclone could turn toward Somalia later this week, but there is much uncertainty about the longer range forecast because of uncertainty about the future intensity of Tropical Cyclone 06A.

Tropical Cyclone Titli Brings Wind and Rain to India

Tropical Cyclone Titli brought wind and rain to India on Wednesday night when it made landfall.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 84.4°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) southwest of Brahmapur, India.  Titli was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Titli intensified rapidly on Wednesday prior to making landfall on the coast of India near Brahmapur.  An eye developed at the center of circulation and a ring of strong thunderstorms formed around the eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Titli.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (275 km) from the center of circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Titli was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Index (HWISI) was 34.1.  Tropical Cyclone Titli was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Tropical Cyclone Titli will move around the western end of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal.  The ridge will steer Titli toward the north during the next 24 hours and then the tropical cyclone will move toward the northeast in a day or so.  On its anticipated track Tropical   Cyclone Titli will move slowly northward in Orissa state in India on Friday.  Titli will cause wind damage and it will drop locally heavy rain over Orissa.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Titli will spin down slowly as it moves north over Orissa.