Tag Archives: Tropical Cyclone 06A

Two Tropical Cyclones Churn over the Arabian Sea

Two tropical cyclones churned over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06A was located at latitude 7.4°N and longitude 57.6°E which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east of Eyl, Somalia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 07A was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 69.1°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 06A exhibited more organization on Tuesday night.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  There were more thunderstorms in bands in the northern half of the tropical cyclone, but thunderstorms were forming in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (185 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 06A will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge centered over southern India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, and the wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 06A will likely strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 06A is currently in an area where the steering winds are weak and it moved little on Tuesday.  A second ridge of high pressure is forecast to build north of the tropical cyclone during the next several days.  The second ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone 06A toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 06A could approach the coast of Somalia in three days.

Tropical Cyclone 07A developed more quickly on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of circulation.  Another band of strong thunderstorms formed in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center or circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 07A will also move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  The upper level ridge centered over southern India will also produce southerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear around Tropical Cyclone 07A.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 07A is also likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

The ridge over southern India will steer Tropical Cyclone 07A toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 07A will move roughly parallel to the west coast of India.

Tropical Cyclone 06A Forms over Western Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06A formed over the western Arabian Sea on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06A was located at latitude 6.7°N and longitude 56.1°E which put it about 420 miles (620 km) east-southeast of Eyl, Somalia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 06A was still organizing on Monday night and the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Satellite images suggested that the upper levels of the circulation were tilted to the north of the surface circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 06A was near the western end of an upper level ridge centered over southern India.  The ridge was producing southerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear,  The wind shear was causing the apparent tilt of the circulation with height and it was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone 06A will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The upper level ridge will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear during the next several days.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  If the vertical wind shear remains moderate, Tropical Cyclone 06A could continue to intensify slowly.  However, if the wind shear increases, then the shear could be strong enough to weaken the tropical cyclone.  The forecast is for slight intensification of Tropical Cyclone 06A during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The ridge centered over southern India will steer Tropical Cyclone 06A toward the north during the next day or two.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 06A will move parallel to the coast of Somalia during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The tropical cyclone could turn toward Somalia later this week, but there is much uncertainty about the longer range forecast because of uncertainty about the future intensity of Tropical Cyclone 06A.