Tag Archives: IO07

Tropical Cyclone Midhili Develops over Northern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Midhili developed over the northern Bay of Bengal near Bangladesh on Thursday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Midhili was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 89.2°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south-southeast of Kolkata, India. Midhili was moving toward the northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the northern Bay of Bengal near Bangladesh strengthened on Thursday evening and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Midhili. The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Midhili was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Midhili’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Midhili consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

An upper level trough over India was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Midhili. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Midhili.

Tropical Cyclone Midhili will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Midhili will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough over India will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Midhili could intensify a little before it makes landfall in Bangladesh.

The upper level trough over India will steer Tropical Cyclone Midhili toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Midhili will make landfall on the coast of Bangladesh near Khepupara in 12 hours Tropical Cyclone Midhili will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Bangladesh. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Weakens over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Mandous weakened over the Arabian Sea on Friday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 64.1°E which put it about 600 miles (970 km) southeast of Masirah, Island. Mandous was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mandous weakened over the Arabian Sea on Friday. An upper level ridge centered over India produced southwesterly winds that blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Mandous. The remaining thunderstorms were in bands in the eastern periphery of Tropical Cyclone Mandous. Bands in the rest of Mandous’ circulation consisted of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the upper level ridge over India will continue to produce southwesterly winds will blow across the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. In addition, northeasterly winds in the lower levels will transport drier air from Asia over the western Arabian Sea. A combination of strong vertical wind shear and drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will cause Tropical Cyclone Mandous to continue to weaken. The circulation around Mandous will gradually spin down during the next several days.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous move slowly across the central Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous Strengthens over Arabian Sea

Former Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mandous was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 68.2°E which put it about 780 miles (1260 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan . Mandous was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Cyclone Mandous strengthened back to tropical storm force over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday. More thunderstorms formed at the center of Mandous’ circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Mandous. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Mandous’ circulation. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mandous will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over southern Asia and the Arabian Sea. The ridge will produce southerly winds will blow toward the top of Mandous’ circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Northeasterly winds in the lower levels will transport drier air from Asia over the western Arabian Sea. The western side of Mandous’ will begin to interact with the drier air during the next 24 hours. A combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Mandous to start to weaken on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Mandous will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The high pressure system will steer Mandous toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mandous will remain far to the south of Pakistan.

Two Tropical Cyclones Churn over the Arabian Sea

Two tropical cyclones churned over the Arabian Sea on Tuesday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 06A was located at latitude 7.4°N and longitude 57.6°E which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east of Eyl, Somalia.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 07A was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 69.1°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) southwest of Mumbai, India.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone 06A exhibited more organization on Tuesday night.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  There were more thunderstorms in bands in the northern half of the tropical cyclone, but thunderstorms were forming in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (185 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone 06A will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move near the western end of an upper level ridge centered over southern India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, and the wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 06A will likely strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 06A is currently in an area where the steering winds are weak and it moved little on Tuesday.  A second ridge of high pressure is forecast to build north of the tropical cyclone during the next several days.  The second ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone 06A toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 06A could approach the coast of Somalia in three days.

Tropical Cyclone 07A developed more quickly on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of circulation.  Another band of strong thunderstorms formed in the eastern half of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north of the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center or circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 07A will also move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C.  The upper level ridge centered over southern India will also produce southerly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear around Tropical Cyclone 07A.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 07A is also likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

The ridge over southern India will steer Tropical Cyclone 07A toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 07A will move roughly parallel to the west coast of India.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja Makes Landfall in Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Gaja made landfall on the coast of southern India just south of Nagappattinam on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Gaja was located at latitude 10.5°N and longitude 79.7°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) south of Nagappattinam, India.  Gaja was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja strengthened rapidly into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon while it approached the coast of Southern India.  A small circular eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  The circulation of Gaja was small, which allowed it to strengthen quickly before landfall.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force only extended out about 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja produced winds strong enough to cause damage in the area near Nagappattinam.  Those winds could bring a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) near where the center made landfall.  The small size of Tropical Cyclone Gaja and the fact it did not intensify until it neared the coast will limit the magnitude of the storm surge.  Gaja is forecast to move westward across southern India.  Tropical Cyclone Gaja will weaken when it moves inland but it will drop locally heavy rain over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and southern Karnataka.  The heavy rain could cause flash flooding in those regions.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will weaken while it moves across southern India.  The small size of the circulation and mountains in that area will contribute to a fairly rapid weakening.  The circulation in the lower levels could be seriously disrupted when it moves over the mountains, but the circulation in the middle levels may persist.  Some numerical models are forecasting that Tropical Cyclone Gaja could strengthen back into the equivalent of a tropical storm when it moves over the Arabian Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja Moves Closer to Southern India

Tropical Cyclone Gaja moved closer to southern India and strengthened on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gaja was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 83.6°E which put it about 260 miles (420 km) east of Cuddalore, India.  Gaja was moving toward the southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja strengthened on Wednesday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation.  Some microwave images exhibited the appearance of an eyelike feature in the lower levels.  The inner end of a rainband appeared to be wrapping around the center of Gaja.  There were several bands of stronger thunderstorms in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  Rainbands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The storms around the center of circulation were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northeast of Gaja.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gaja was relatively small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gaja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move southwest of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will restrict upper level divergence to the southeast of Gaja.  They will also cause moderate vertical wind shear, which is probably the reason why most of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring in the western half of the circulation.  The wind shear will slow intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Gaja will strengthen during the next 24 hours.  Gaja could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will move south of a ridge in the middle troposphere during the next 48 hours.  The ridge will steer Gaja on a track that is a little south of straight westward.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gaja will approach the coast of southern India in about 24 hours.  Gaja will make landfall in Tamil Nadu between Cuddalore and Nagappattinam in a little over a day.  It could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.  Gaja will bring strong winds and it could cause a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 metres) at the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Gaja will drop locally heavy rain over portions of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Gaja formed over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gaja was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 86.7°E which put it about 500 miles (805 km) east of Chennai, India.  Gaja was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

An area of low pressure moving over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Sunday and the India Meteorological Department classified the system as Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gaja is still organizing.  There is a distinct low level center of circulation.  A short band of thunderstorms is west and north of the center.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms are developing in other parts of Tropical Cyclone Gaja.  One stronger band is east of the center of circulation and another stronger band is southeast of the center.  Storms near the center are beginning to generate upper level divergence which will pump mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Gaja will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Gaja will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  The winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Gaja will intensify and it could be nearly equivalent to a hurricane/typhoon in two or three days.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Cyclone Gaja in a generally west-southwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gaja will approach the coast of southern India in about 72 hours.  Gaja could be nearly the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere, over the South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Alcide still was moving slowly east of the northern end of Madgascar and Tropical Cyclone Bouchra developed between Diego Garcia and Cocos Island.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alcide was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 51.9°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east of Antisiranana, Madagascar.  Alcide was moving toward the northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bouchra was located at latitude 5.4°S and longitude 89.1°E which put it about 700 miles (1130 km) northwest of Cocos Island, Australia.  Bouchra was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.