Tag Archives: Tropical Cyclone 01A

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 01A formed over the southeastern Arabian Sea on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 73.3°E which put it about 450 miles (725 km) south of Mumbai, India, Philippines. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

An area of low pressure strengthened into a tropical cyclone over the southeastern Arabian Sea on Friday. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A. Thunderstorms were also increasing in bands revolving around the center of the tropical cyclone. The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern side of the tropical cyclone were dropping locally heavy rain and producing high waves along the coasts of Kerala and Karnataka. Storms near the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the system. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern half of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. It will move the western portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone 01A will intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 24 hours. Once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develops, rapid intensification could occur.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move around the western side of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next two days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A will stay west of India during the weekend. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India. Tropical Cyclone 01A could move over the northern Arabian Sea by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone 01A Forms Over the Gulf of Aden

Tropical Cyclone 01A formed over the Gulf of Aden on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 48.6°E which put it about 265 miles (425 km) east of Aden, Yemen.  It was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A distinct low level center of circulation developed in an area of showers and thunderstorms that moved from the Arabian Sea to the Gulf of Aden.  Several bands of stronger thunderstorms formed west of the center of circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in these bands.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of low clouds and showers.  The storms west of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 01A will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  Tropical Cyclone 01A is moving south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is producing westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds may be part of the reason why the stronger thunderstorms are occurring on the western side of the center  The winds are causing some vertical wind shear, but the shear is not likely to be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 01A is likely to strengthen as long as it stays over the Gulf of Aden and it could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane.  Much drier air is over the Arabian Peninsula and over eastern Africa.  Tropical Cyclone 01A will likely weaken when it moves closer to land and starts to pull drier air into the circulation.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone 01A toward the west.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen and to steer the tropical cyclone a little to the south of west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 01A is expected to remain over the Gulf of Aden for several more days.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rain to coastal portions of Yemen and northern parts of Somalia.