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Major Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Hits Gujarat

Major Tropical Cyclone Tauktae hit the Indian state of Gujarat on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 71.4°E which put it about 25 miles (405 km) west of Mahuva, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae made landfall on coast of Gujarat near Jafrabad, India on Monday. The core of Tauktae moved inland between Diu and Mahuva. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was the equivalent of a major hurricane, when it made landfall. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was evident on satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tauktae.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.9. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move inland toward the north-northeast over Gujarat during the next 24 hours. Tauktae will produce winds capable of causing major damage in the southern part of Gujarat. Strong southerly winds will push water into the Gulf of Khambhat. A storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) could occur at some places along the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will also drop heavy rain over parts of Gujarat and flash floods could occur. Tauktae will start to move more toward the east later on Tuesday when it reaches the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Nears Gujarat

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tauktae neared the Indian state of Gujarat on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 71.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was passing just to the west of Mumbai, India on Sunday night. The core of Tauktae contracted on Sunday as the tropical cyclone continued to intensify. The diameter of the circular eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae shrank to 14 miles (22 km). The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (75 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3. Tauktae was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle begins. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tauktae to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the Tauktae toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Maharastra and Gujarat. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 12 hours. Tauktae is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will be capable of producing severe damage in Gujarat. Tauktae could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the coast of Gujarat. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea south of Mumbai, India on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 72.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae continued to intensify on Sunday. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tauktae. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tauktae increase in size on Sunday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.2. Tauktae was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is likely to continue to intensify during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the Tauktae toward the north-northwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will pass west of Mumbai, India. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Maharastra and Gujarat. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 24 hours. Tauktae is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will be capable of producing major damage in Gujarat. Tauktae could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the coast of Gujarat. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Arabian Sea south of Mumbai on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 72.8°E which put it about 300 miles (485 km) south of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae strengthened steadily on Saturday and it intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tauktae and an eye was visible on the India Meteorological Department’s radar at Goa and on satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the western portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours. Since an inner core with an eye and an eyewall has developed, rapid intensification could occur.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the western side of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will pass west of Mumbai, India. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Karnataka, Goa and Maharastra. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 36 hours. Tauktae could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast.