Tropical Cyclone Kyarr Strengthens to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane over Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 68.6°E which put it about 705 miles (1135 km) east-southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.  Kyarr was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr intensified rapidly into the equivalent of a major hurricane during the past 36 hours.  A small eye formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Kyarr.  Storms near the core of Kyarr were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone in all directions.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Kyarr was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.1 and the Hurricane Wind intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.2.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Kyarr will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Kyarr could strengthen during the next 24 hours.  An inner rainband could wrap around the eye and eyewall at some point.  That would start an eyewall replacement cycle which would cause Kyarr to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move south of a ridge of high pressure over South Asia.  The ridge will steer Kyarr toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kyarr will move toward Oman.