A Tropical Depression formed over the Arabian Sea near the coast of western Oman on Friday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 54.2°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) southeast of Salalah, Oman. The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.
More thunderstorms developed near the center of a small low pressure system near the coast of western Oman on Friday and the India Meteorological Department classified the system as a depression. Thunderstorms were forming near the center of the depression. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the depression in all directions.
The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification if the center remains over water. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C. The depression will be under an upper level ridge where the winds are weak. There will be little vertical wind shear and the upper level ridge will enhance upper level divergence. If the center of the tropical depression remains over the Arabian Sea, then it is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a tropical storm during the next 24 to 48 hours. If the center of circulation moves inland over western Oman and eastern Yemen, then intensification becomes much less likely.
The tropical depression will move under the upper level ridge and the steering winds will be very weak. The depression is forecast to drift very slowly toward the west during the next several days, The center of the depression could remain just off the coast or it could move slowly inland. The slow movement of the depression will allow it to drop locally heavy rain over parts of western Oman and eastern Yemen. The heavy rain could very likely cause flash floods in some locations.