Tropical Cyclone Tej Moves Toward Eastern Yemen

Tropical Cyclone Tej moved over the Arabian Sea toward eastern Yemen on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tej was located at latitude 13.6°N and longitude 54.0°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) south of Salalah, Oman. Tej was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tej appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cyclone on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original small eye and eyewall. The inner eyewall dissipated on Sunday afternoon and a larger eye was apparent on satellite images. The new, larger eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Tej. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Tej went through an eyewall replacement cycle, its circulation was still small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Tej’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tej was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.3. Tropical Cyclone Tej was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tej will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Tej will move closer to dry air over Yemen and Oman. Northerly winds in the western side of Tej’s circulation could start to pull the dry air into the tropical cyclone. The recently completed eyewall replacement cycle and the dry air could cause Tropical Cyclone Tej to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tej will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over South Asia. The high pressure system will steer Tej toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Tej will approach the coast of eastern Yemen near Nishtun in 24 hours. Tej will bring strong winds to eastern Yemen. Tropical Cyclone Tej will also drop heavy rain on parts of eastern Yemen and western Oman. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.