Tropical Cyclone Ialy weakened near the coast of Kenya and Somalia on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 2.9°S and longitude 42.7°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) northeast of Mombasa, Kenya and about 170 miles (275 km) south of Kismayo, Somalia. Ialy was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Westerly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ialy pulled drier air from east Africa into its circulation. The drier air was pulled around Ialy’s circulation and some of the drier air reached the center of Ialy. The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Ialy to dissipate. Some thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern part of Ialy’s circulation. Upper level divergence decreased when the thunderstorms dissipated. The decrease in upper level divergence caused mass to accumulate at the surface and the surface pressure increased. Tropical Cyclone Ialy weakened rapidly during Tuesday night when the surface pressure increased. Ialy weakened from the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon to the equivalent of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air will continue to be pulled from east Africa into Ialy’s circulation. The drier air will cause the remaining thunderstorms to dissipate. Tropical Cyclone Ialy will to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours. The circulation around Ialy could dissipate during the next day or so.

As the remaining thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Ialy dissipate, Ialy will be steered by winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy slowly toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain off the coast of northern Kenya and southern Somalia. Ialy could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast.