Tropical Cyclone Ialy churned over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was located at latitude 7.2°S and longitude 45.1°E which put it about 405 miles (650 km) east of Dar es Salaam, Tanzaniar. Ialy was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Ialy was completely surrounded by drier air, but the drier air had not penetrated the core by Sunday morning. Thunderstorms were still occurring in the inner ends of bands near the center of Ialy’s circulation. The outer portions of bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Ialy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ialy.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move into an environment that will be more unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ialy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, the drier air surrounding the core of Ialy’s circulation will inhibit formation of thunderstorms. Tropical Cyclone Ialy is likely to start to weaken during the next 24 hours after the drier air penetrates the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ialy will move north of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ialy toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ialy will remain east of Tanzania. Ialy could move east of Kenya on Monday.