Tropical Cyclone Garance formed over the Southwest Indian Ocean northwest of La Reunion on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 18.3°S and longitude 52.1°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) northwest of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the east-northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean northwest of La Reunion strengthened on Tuesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Garance.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical in Tropical Cyclone Garance.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Garance’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Cyclone Garance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Garance began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northwestern side of an upper level low that is southeast of La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Garance’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level low southeast of La Reunion will steer Tropical Cyclone Garance slowly toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will approach La Reunion and Mauritius in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches La Reunion and Mauritius.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, a tropical depression formed over the Mozambique Channel.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 22.9°S and longitude 37.1°E which put the center about 405 miles (655 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar.   The tropical depression was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.