Tropical Cyclone 05S Forms West of Cocos Islands

Tropical Cyclone 05S formed over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands on Thursday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S was located at latitude 12.1°S and longitude 95.2°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) east of the Cocos Islands.  Tropical Cyclone 05S was moving toward the east at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean west of the Cocos Islands strengthened on Thursday evening and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 05S.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low.

The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone 05S was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 05S consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and south of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Cyclone 05S was also symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 05S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone 05S.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 05S could intensify during the next 24 hours, if the upper level winds do not get any stronger.

Tropical Cyclone 05S will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone 05S will pass southwest of the Cocos Islands on Friday.