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Tropical Storm Hilary Drops Heavy Rain on Southern California

Tropical Storm Hilary dropped heavy rain over parts of southern California on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 116.1°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of San Diego, California. Hilary was moving toward the north at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Point Mugu, California. The Tropical Storm Warning included San Diego. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia San Bautista to Guaymas, Mexico.

Former Hurricane Hilary weakened to a tropical storm as the center of Hilary moved over the northern part of Baja California. Bands in the northern part of Hilary’s circulation brought gusty winds to parts of southern California and Arizona. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. A weather station at the Imperial, California airport reported a sustained wind speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h). A weather station in Yuma, Arizona reported at sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h).

The circulation around the northern side of Tropical Storm Hilary interacted with an upper level low west of California to drop heavy rain over parts of southern California. Weather stations in Carlsbad, Ramona, Los Angeles, Riverside, Big Bear, Borrego, Palmdale, Edwards Air Force Base, and Gray Butte, California were all reporting heavy rain at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

The upper low west of California will pull Tropical Storm Hilary quickly to the north during the next 24 hours. The center of Hilary’s circulation will pass east of San Diego on Sunday evening. Tropical Storm Hilary continue to weaken as it moves inland over the Southwest U.S. The circulation of Hilary will move over Nevada on Monday. The upper and lower parts of Hilary’s circulation could decouple because of strong vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Hilary will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain during the next 24 hours. The heaviest rain is likely to fall where the wind forces the air to rise over mountains. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona. Hilary could also bring strong winds to mountains in southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hurricane Hilary Brings Wind and Rain to Baja California

Hurricane Hilary brought wind and rain to Baja California on Saturday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 114.6°W which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the north-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Even though center of Hurricane Hilary was south of Punta Eugenia, Hilary brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California on Saturday night. A weather station in Loreto, Mexico reported a sustained wind speed of 58 m.p.h. (93 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h). There were reports of flash floods in Santa Rosalia, Mexico.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Todos Santos, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Los Barriles to Guaymas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Point Mugu, California. The Tropical Storm Warning included San Diego. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary was weakening on Saturday night. There was no longer an eye visible on satellite images of Hurricane Hilary. The distribution of thunderstorms in Hilary was asymmetrical. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Hilary’s circulation. Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was still large even though Hilary was weakening. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 18.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.6. Hurricane Hilary was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Matthew when Matthew hit South Carolina in 2016.

Hurricane Hilary will be moving into an environment that will be unfavorable for a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are colder than 26°C. It will move between an upper level ridge over Mexico and the south central U.S. and an upper level low west of California. The upper level ridge and upper level low will interact to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hilary’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Hilary to weaken during the next 24 hours. In addition, much of the circulation in the eastern side of Hurricane Hilary will pass over Baja California. The mountains in Baja California will partially disrupt the flow of air around Hurricane Hilary.

The upper level ridge over the south central U.S. and the upper level low west of California will steer Hurricane Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Hilary will be near Punta Eugenia early Sunday morning. Hilary will continue to produce strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Baja California on Sunday. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Hilary could take a track similar to the one taken by Hurricane Nora in 1997. The center of Hilary will reach southern California by Sunday evening. Hilary will weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hilary will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. The heaviest rain is likely to fall where the wind force the air to rise over mountains. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona. Hilary could also bring strong winds to mountains in southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hurricane Hilary Moves Toward Baja California

Hurricane Hilary was moving toward Baja California on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 113.4°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) south-southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Guaymas, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Point Mugu, California. The Tropical Storm Warning included San Diego. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Quintin, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary was moving closer to Baja California on Saturday morning. An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Hilary’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 265 miles (425 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3. Hurricane Hilary was capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Hilary appeared to be starting to weaken on Saturday morning. Thunderstorms were weakening in bands in the western side of Hilary’s circulation. Some of the bands in the western part of Hilary consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Northerly winds in the western half of Hurricane Hilary were pulling cooler, drier air into that part of the hurricane.

Hurricane Hilary will be moving into an environment that will become unfavorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 27°C. It will move between an upper level ridge over Mexico and the south central U.S. and an upper level low west of California. The upper level ridge and upper level low will interact to produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Hilary’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Hilary to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level ridge over the south central U.S. and the upper level low west of California will steer Hurricane Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Hilary will approach Punta Eugenia on Saturday night. Hilary will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Hilary will reach southern California on Sunday. Hilary is likely to weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hilary bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona. Hilary could also bring strong winds to mountains in southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Hilary Prompts Hurricane Warning for Baja, Tropical Storm Watch for Southern California

The potential threat from Hurricane Hilary prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for part of Baja California and a Tropical Storm Watch for Southern California on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 111.4°W which put it about 360 miles (575 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 939 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Ensenada, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Loreto, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S. border with Mexico to the Orange/Los Angeles County Line. The Tropical Storm Watch included Catalina Island. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ensenada, Mexico to the border with the U.S. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Loreto to Huatabampito, Mexico.

Hurricane Hilary continued to intensify on Friday morning. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (30 km) was at the center of Hilary’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.8. Hurricane Hilary was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit Louisiana in 2021.

Hurricane Hilary will move through an environment favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Hilary could intensify during the next 24 hours. However, if the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Hilary to weaken.

Hurricane Hilary will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico and the south central U.S. The high pressure system will steer Hilary toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Hilary will move toward Baja California. Hilary will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system during the weekend. The center of Hurricane Hilary will be near Punta Eugenia on Sunday morning. Hurricane Hilary will start to affect Baja California on Saturday. Hilary will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

The center of Hurricane Hilary is likely to approach southern California on Sunday night. There is cooler water west of the northern part of Baja California. Hilary will be weakening when it approaches southern California. Hilary bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches have been issued for parts of southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah and western Arizona.

Tropical Storm Rosa Nears Baja California

Tropical Storm Rosa moved nearer to Baja California on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located at latitude 27.5°N and longitude 116.5°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Rosa was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Rosa was weakening as it approached the coast of Baja California.  Rosa was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 23°C.  An upper level low west of California was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing significant vertical wind shear.  The effects of cool water and vertical shear were causing most of the stronger thunderstorms to occur northeast of the center of circulation.  Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The center of Tropical Storm Rosa will reach northern Baja California in a few hours.  Rosa will bring some gusty winds when when it reaches the coast, but the greater risk is locally heavy rainfall.  Rosa could drop several inches of rain and flash floods could occur.  The lower level part of Rosa’s circulation will weaken when it crosses Baja California.  However, the upper low west of California will steer the middle and upper parts of Tropical Storm Rosa over the Southwestern U.S.  Rosa, or its remnants, could drop locally heavy rain over that region during the next several days.  Flash Flood Watches have been issued for southeastern California, eastern Nevada, western Arizona, and much of Utah.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific, Tropical Storm Sergio was strengthening slowly south of Baja California.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 109.5°W which put it about 790 miles (1275 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Sergio was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Hurricane Rosa Moves Toward Baja California

Hurricane Rosa moved toward Baja California on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Rosa was located at latitude 22.4°N and longitude 118.9°W which put it about 440 miles (710 km) south-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico.  Rosa was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe, Mexico.

Hurricane Rosa will move into an environment unfavorable for hurricanes on Sunday.  Rosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is cooler than 26°C.  In addition an upper level low near the west coast of the U.S. will produce southwesterly winds which will cause vertical wind shear.  The combination of cooler water and more vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Rosa to weaken.  Rosa could weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday night.

The upper low will steer Hurricane Rosa toward the northeast during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Rosa could reach Baja California on Monday.  It will likely be a tropical storm at that time.  Even though it will weaken, Rosa will drop heavy rain over parts northern Baja California and the southwestern U.S.  The heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Sergio formed southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 103.3°W which put it about 390 miles (630 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Sergio was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Hurricane Rosa Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane Southwest of Baja California

Hurricane Rosa rapidly intensified into a major hurricane southwest of Baja California on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Rosa was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 115.9°W which put it about 570 miles (915 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rosa was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

Hurricane Rosa rapidly intensified into a powerful hurricane on Thursday and a circular eye developed at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in the ring of storms.  The circulation around Hurricane Rosa was symmetrical.  Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the hurricane.  Storms around the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Rosa was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force only extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rosa was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.4.

Hurricane Rosa will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Rosa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear during the shorter term.  If a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, an eyewall replacement cycle could halt the current period of rapid intensification.  Hurricane Rosa will start to move over cooler water during the weekend.  An upper level low west of California will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Rosa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear and they could cause Rosa to weaken more quickly.

Hurricane Rosa will move around the western end of a ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico on Friday.  Rosa will start to move more toward the north when it moves around the western end of the ridge.  The upper level trough east of California will turn Rosa more toward the northeast during the weekend.  On its anticipated track Rosa could approach Baja California early next week.  It may weaken to a tropical storm before it gets to Baja California, but it still will have the potential to drop heavy rain.

Tropical Depression 16E Could Bring Heavy Rain to Southwest U.S.

A center of circulation organized within a cluster of thunderstorms west of Baja California on Sunday and the system was designated Tropical Depression Sixteen-E.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (TD16E) was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 113.7°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  TD16E was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Depression 16E has only a few hours before it will move over the central part of Baja California.  Although it is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C little, if any, intensification is expected.  When TD16E crosses Baja California, the terrain and increased vertical wind shear are likely to blow the upper portion of the circulation northward faster than the lower portion of the circulation.  The high clouds could reach parts of the southwestern U.S. within 24 hours.  Moving over mountains will disrupt the lower part of the circulation, but the rotation in the middle levels could persist for several days as it moves northward.

An upper level ridge centered over Texas and an upper level low west of Baja California are combining to steer TD16E northward and that general motion should continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track TD16E could reach the coast of Baja California near Punta Abreojos in about 12 hours.  It could then move across Baja and the Gulf of California and make a second landfall on the coast west of Hermosillo on Monday morning.  TD16E or its remnants could be approaching southern Arizona later on Monday.  Convection and a flow of moisture associated with TD16E could produce locally heavy rainfall when it is forced to rise of mountains.  It could cause flooding in parts of Baja California, northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S.

Hurricane Blanca Heading for West Coast of Baja California

Hurricane Blanca turned toward the north-northwest on Saturday and it appears headed toward the west coast of Baja California.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Blanca was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 110.4°W which put it about 255 miles (415 km) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Blanca was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 22.1, the Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 42.3.  The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the portion of the coast from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Loreto to Puerto San Andresito including Cabo San Lucas.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the portions of the coast from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos and from Loreto to Mulege.

Hurricane Blanca intensified early on Saturday as it was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was near 28°C.  It is currently over water where the SST is closer to 27°C and it will move over cooler water when it gets north of latitude 20°N.  As a result it will be unable to extract enough energy from the upper ocean to maintain its current intensity.  An upper level ridge over Mexico also seems to be generating some easterly winds near Blanca and those winds are responsible for vertical wind shear on the eastern half of the circulation.  The combination of shear and cooler SSTs should steadily weaken the hurricane on Sunday.  However, it has a well organized circulation and it will spin down relatively slowly.  The rate of weakening will increase once it moves over SSTs that are cooler than 26°C.  Blanca could still have hurricane force winds when it nears the southern tip of Baja California.

A mid-level ridge over Texas and northern Mexico and a trough over the southwestern U.S. are combining to steer Blanca toward the north-northwest.  That track should continue as long as the vertical structure of the hurricane remains intact.  As Blanca weakens over cooler water, the vertical integrity of the circulation will not be as strong.  Some storms that move just west of Baja California, as Blanca is forecast to do, have the upper portion of their circulation decouple from the lower level circulation.  In those cases the middle and upper level portions of the circulation continue to move northward across Baja California and into the southwestern U.S., while the low level circulation stalls and spins down west of Baja California.  On its anticipated track Blanca could bring some strong winds to portions of southern Baja California, but the greater risks are high waves and locally heavy rainfall that could produce flooding.