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Trudy Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

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Hurricane Trudy intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 102.5°W which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Hurricane Trudy intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday night.

A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Trudy.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Trudy’ circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Trudy is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.4.  Hurricane Trudy is similar in intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.  Trudy is not quite as large as Milton was.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Trudy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Trudy will move closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Simon was weakening south of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 108.8°W which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Trudy Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Trudy strengthened to a hurricane on Wednesday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 101.6°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Trudy strengthened to a hurricane on Wednesday night.

Tall thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Hurricane Trudy.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Trudy.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Trudy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Trudy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Trudy could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane by early on Friday.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Trudy will move closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Simon was still meandering west of Mexico.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 108.5°W which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Simon was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Hurricane Simon Meanders West of Mexico

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Hurricane Simon meandered over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon strengthened on Tuesday evening as it meandered just to the west of Mexico.

A very small circular eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km) was at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was greater than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure decreased on Tuesday evening.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 4.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 23.9.  Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Simon is much smaller than Zeta was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon could intensify back to a major hurricane during the next 12 hours.  Simon could meander back over cooler water it has mixed to the surface later on Wednesday.  If Simon meanders over that cooler water, then it is likely to weaken, because it will extract less energy from the ocean.

Hurricane Simon will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Simon will continue to meander slowly west of Mexico on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Trudy formed south of Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Trudy was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 440 miles (705 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. 165 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Hurricane Simon Stalls Just West of Mexico

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Hurricane Simon stalled just west of Mexico on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 106.8°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 969 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to Bahia Tempehuaya, Mexico.  The Hurricane Watch includes Puerto Vallarta.

Hurricane Simon weakened gradually as it stalled on Monday.

Even though Hurricane Simon weakened on Monday, a very small circular eye was still present at the center of Simon’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Monday.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 4.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 20.9.  Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Simon is smaller than Idalia was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Simon will pull some drier air that is over Mexico into its circulation because Simon will remain very close to Mexico.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Simon’s circulation.  Hurricane Simon is likely to continue to weaken gradually on Tuesday because of the effects of the drier air.  Simon could intensify on Wednesday when it is little farther away from the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Simon will pass west of the Islas Marias on Tuesday night.

The core of Hurricane Simon will pass west of Las Islas Marias on Tuesday night.  Simon will bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Flash floods are likely to occur in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of coast of Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon Stays Just West of Mexico

The core of Hurricane Simon stayed just to the west of the west coast of Mexico on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 105.8°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from El Roblito to Tempehuaya, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday afternoon.

A circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.3. Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Simon is smaller than Harvey was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Hurricane Simon is likely to pull some drier air that is over Mexico into its circulation because Simon will remain very close to Mexico.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Simon’s circulation.  Hurricane Simon is likely to weaken on Monday because of the effects of the drier air.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Simon will remain just to the west of Mexico on Monday.  The center of Simon’s circulation will pass just to the west of Cabo Corrientes on Sunday night.  The core of Hurricane Simon will be near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.

Bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Simon will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

The core of Hurricane Simon will pass near Las Islas Marias on Monday afternoon.  Simon will bring strong winds and heavy rain to those islands.  Flash floods are likely to occur in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of coast of Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon Nears Western Mexico

Powerful Hurricane Simon was nearing the west coast of Mexico on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 104.8°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 932 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall on Saturday.  Concentric eyewalls were at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The inner eyewall had a diameter of 14 miles (22 km).  The outer eyewall had a diameter of 40 miles (65 km).

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.1.  Hurricane Simon is bigger and stronger than Hurricane Charley was when Charley hit southwest Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon could weaken during the next few hours if an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, even though Simon is in a favorable environment.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Simon will be near Manzanillo on Sunday morning.

Hurricane Simon will be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel was moving quickly toward northern Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 118.3°W which put the center about 255 miles (415 km) southwest of Punta Baja, Mexico.  Rachel was moving toward the north-northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia, Mexico to the Mexico/U.S. border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego County/Orange County line in California.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Simon Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.   Simon was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.  The Hurricane Warning includes Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Mita to El Roblito, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Hurricane Simon intensified to a major hurricane on Friday.

A very small eye formed at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 6.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 28.2.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Simon could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Simon could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Simon will approach the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel started to move toward Baja California.  Tropical Storm Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for parts of southern California, the northern part of Baja California and northwestern Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 123.3°W which put the center about 720 miles (1160 km) south-southwest of San Diego, California.  Rachel was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico to the Mexico/U.S. border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the U.S./Mexico border to the San Diego County/Orange County line in California.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Isla San Luis to Bahia de Los Angeles, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco, Mexico.

Simon Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Simon strengthened to a hurricane on Thursday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 104.6°W which put the center about 235 miles (380 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Former Tropical Storm Simon strengthened to a hurricane on Friday evening.

Tall thunderstorms formed near the center of Hurricane Simon.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was small.  The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles in the northeastern quadrant of Simon.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Simon could intensify rapidly at times.  Hurricane Simon could strengthen to a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the north during the next 24 hours. Hurricane Simon will approach the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.

Hurricane Simon is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Mexico.  Simon will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico.  The strongest winds and heaviest rains will occur in Jalisco and Nayarit.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Simon could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the west coast of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel continued to weaken gradually west of Baja California.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 125.5°W which put the center about 995 miles (1600 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Simon Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Simon formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 101.6°W which put the center about 175 miles (285 km) south-southeast of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Simon.

Tropical Storm Simon exhibited better organization on Wednesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Simon’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also started to develop in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Simon.  Storms near the center of Simon began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass cause the surface pressure to start to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Simon.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Simon’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Simon were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Simon’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Simon will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Simon will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Simon toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  Simon will start to move toward the north on Friday when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Simon could approach the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Rachel was still spinning west of Baja California.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rachel was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 122.3°W which put the center about 800 miles (1290 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Rachel was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Ramon Weakens

Former Tropical Storm Ramon weakened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Sunday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of former Tropical Storm Ramon was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 123.9°W which put it about 1085 miles (1750 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ramon was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A large upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean produced strong southwesterly winds that blew the top off of former Tropical Storm Ramon. The remaining circulation of former Tropical Storm Ramon in the lower levels consisted primarily of bands of showers and lower clouds. Strong upper level winds blew the tops off of any clouds that rose higher in the atmosphere.

Former Tropical Storm Ramon will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Ramon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. However, the large upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific will continue to produce strong southwesterly winds. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause formed Tropical Storm Ramon to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Since the circulation of former Tropical Storm Ramon only exists in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will be steered by the winds near the surface of the Earth. Former Tropical Storm Ramon will move south of a surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific. The high pressure system will steer former Tropical Storm Ramon toward the west during the next 36 hours.