Hurricane Polo moved nearer to the coast of southern Baja California on Sunday evening.
At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 114.0°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. Polo was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe, Mexico.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the east coast of Baja California from Loreto to Santa Rosalia, Mexico.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Huatabampito, Mexico.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos, Mexico.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from ; Loreto to San Evaristo, Mexico.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Guaymas to Bahia Kino, Mexico.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Huatabampito to Topolobampo, Mexico.
Hurricane Polo was still a major hurricane on Sunday evening. A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Polo’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo. Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. So, the surface pressure did not change much on Sunday.
The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Polo was fairly symmetrical. Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.
The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 23.4. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.0. Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.
Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, Polo will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is near the West Coast of the U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Polo’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Monday. Hurricane Polo will weaken during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.
The upper level trough near the West Coast of the U.S. will pull Hurricane Polo toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Polo will make landfall on the coast of southwest Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro on Monday afternoon.
Hurricane Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern Baja California. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.
Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Rachel formed south of Mexico.
At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 99.8°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Rachel was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa, Perula, Mexico.