A center of circulation organized within a cluster of thunderstorms west of Baja California on Sunday and the system was designated Tropical Depression Sixteen-E.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (TD16E) was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 113.7°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico.  TD16E was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Depression 16E has only a few hours before it will move over the central part of Baja California.  Although it is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C little, if any, intensification is expected.  When TD16E crosses Baja California, the terrain and increased vertical wind shear are likely to blow the upper portion of the circulation northward faster than the lower portion of the circulation.  The high clouds could reach parts of the southwestern U.S. within 24 hours.  Moving over mountains will disrupt the lower part of the circulation, but the rotation in the middle levels could persist for several days as it moves northward.

An upper level ridge centered over Texas and an upper level low west of Baja California are combining to steer TD16E northward and that general motion should continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track TD16E could reach the coast of Baja California near Punta Abreojos in about 12 hours.  It could then move across Baja and the Gulf of California and make a second landfall on the coast west of Hermosillo on Monday morning.  TD16E or its remnants could be approaching southern Arizona later on Monday.  Convection and a flow of moisture associated with TD16E could produce locally heavy rainfall when it is forced to rise of mountains.  It could cause flooding in parts of Baja California, northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S.