Tropical Storm Ivo Moves Southeast of Baja California

Tropical Storm Ivo moved southeast of Baja California on Thursday evening.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 107.3°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) southeast of the southern tip of Baja California.  Ivo was moving toward the northwest at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Even though Tropical Storm Ivo strengthened on Thursday, its structure did not change a lot.  Thunderstorms were still forming near the center of Ivo’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Ivo.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Ivo’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ivo was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Ivo’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ivo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ivo’s circulation.  However, the winds in the lower atmosphere will also blow from the east.  Since the winds in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere will blow from the same direction, there will be less vertical wind shear.  Even though Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment most favorable for intensification, Ivo may not intensify a lot on Friday as long as it continues to move quickly toward the west-northwest.  If Tropical Storm Ivo starts to move more slowly, then it could intensify again.

Tropical Storm Ivo will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ivo toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ivo will move south of Baja California on Friday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Henriette weakened slowly as it approached the Central Pacific.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Henriette was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 138.4°W which put the center about 1090 miles (1750 km) east Hilo, Hawaii.  Henriette was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.