Tag Archives: Tropical Storm Greg

Hilary Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Hilary rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Thursday morning. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the southern part of Baja California. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Hilary was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 107.1°W which put it about 320 miles (515 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Watch included Cabo San Lucas.

Former Tropical Storm Hilary rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Thursday morning. An eye was visible on satellite images at the center of Hurricane Hilary. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Hilary. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Hilary was large. Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hilary’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Hilary will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Hilary will intensify during the next 24 hours. Hilary could intensify rapidly at times. Hurricane Hilary is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane on Friday.

Hurricane Hilary will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Hilary toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Hilary will move toward Baja California. Hilary will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system during the weekend. Hurricane Hilary will start to affect Baja California during the weekend.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Greg was passing south of Hawaii and Tropical Storm Fernanda continued to weaken. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 154.5°W which put it about 675 miles (1085 km) south-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. Greg was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 130.8°W which put it about 1425 miles (2290 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fernanda was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Hilary Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Hilary formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 102.6°W which put it about 470 miles (755 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Hilary was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Hilary. The circulation around Tropical Storm Hilary was organizing quickly. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hilary’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Hilary. Winds in the other parts of Hilary’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Hilary will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hilary will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Hilary will intensify during the next 24 hours. Hilary could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Storm Hilary is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Hilary will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Hilary toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Hilary will move parallel to the west coast of Mexico. Hilary will move more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system during the weekend. Hilary could be near Baja California by Sunday.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Greg was spinning southeast of Hawaii and former Hurricane Fernanda weakened to a tropical storm. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 151.1°W which put it about 605 miles (975 km) south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Greg was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 126.8°W which put it about 1165 miles (1875 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fernanda was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Storm Greg Moves Southeast of Hawaii

Tropical Storm Greg moved southeast of Hawaii on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 11.1°N and longitude 145.9°W which put it about 850 miles (1370 km) southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Greg was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Greg strengthened a little on Tuesday morning as it moved over the Central Pacific Ocean southeast of Hawaii. Even though Tropical Storm Greg was a little stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms in Greg’s circulation was asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Storm Greg. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern half of Greg’s circulation. The winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Greg will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Greg will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Greg’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is already contributing to an asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. The vertical wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. So, Tropical Storm Greg could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Greg will move south of a high pressure system over the eastern and central North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Greg toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Greg will pass far to the south of Hawaii.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Fernanda weakened gradually over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 121.8°W which put it about 875 miles (1405 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fernanda was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Fernanda Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Fernanda rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during Sunday night. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 117.7°W which put it about 715 miles (1150 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fernanda was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Fernanda continued to intensify rapidly during Sunday night. A small eye was at the center of Fernanda’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Hurricane Fernanda. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Fernanda was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fernanda’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 31.4.

Hurricane Fernanda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Fernanda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Fernanda is likely to continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. Fernanda will move over slightly cooler water on Tuesday. The cooler water will cause Fernanda to start to weaken.

Hurricane Fernanda will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fernanda toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Fernanda will move farther away from Baja California.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Greg formed east-southeast of Hawaii. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 139.8°W which put it about 1170 miles (1885 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Greg was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb. Tropical Storm Greg is forecast to pass south of Hawaii later this week.

Tropical Storm Irwin Forms, Greg Gets Larger, Hilary Strengthens

Tropical Depression Ten-E intensified into Tropical Storm Irwin, the circulation of Tropical Storm Greg increased in size and Tropical Storm Hilary strengthened on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 116.6°W which put it about 705 miles (1135 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Irwin was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 130.1°W which put it about 1445 miles (2325 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Greg was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located at latitude 14.9°N and longitude 102.9°W which put it about 410 miles (660 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Hilary was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was was 999 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of circulation of Tropical Depression Ten-E and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Irwin.  Several other bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing over the southern half of the circulation.  There were fewer showers and thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center of circulation were generating some upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Irwin will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification.  Irwin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  An upper level ridge northwest of Irwin are generating northeastern winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating moderate vertical wind shear and the shear may be the cause of the asymmetric distribution of showers and thunderstorms.  Tropical Storm Irwin could intensify during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Greg grew in size on Sunday.  However, Tropical Storm Greg will move into a less favorable environment during the next several days.  Tropical Storm Greg is over water where the SST is near 28°C, but it will move over cooler water in a day or two.  Greg could intensify in the short term, but it will weaken by midweek.

Tropical Storm Hilary is moving through a very favorable environment.  Hilary is moving over water where the SST is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Hilary could be beginning a period of rapid intensification.  Hilary is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and it could be a major hurricane later this week.

A subtropical ridge is steering all three tropical storms in a general west-northwesterly direction.  Tropical Storms Greg, Hilary and Irwin are likely to continue to move a little to the north of due west during the next three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Hilary is expected to remain west of the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storms Fernanda and Greg Continue West Across the Pacific

Tropical Storms Fernanda and Greg continued to move west across the Pacific Ocean on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 141.4°W which put it about 900 miles (1445 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fernanda was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 117.4°W which put it about 770 miles (1240 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Greg was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernanda is moving through an environment that is unfavorable for intensification.  Fernanda is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 26°C.  An upper level trough northeast of Hawaii is producing southwesterly winds which are causing strong vertical wind shear over Fernanda.  Tropical Storm Fernanda has a strong low level circulation but the vertical wind shear will blow the tops off any new thunderstorms that form.  The shear is likely to cause Fernanda to continue to weaken and the low level circulation is likely to gradually spin down.

Tropical Storm Greg did not intensify much on Thursday but recent satellite images seem to indicate that Greg may be getting more organized.  A primary band of showers and thunderstorms has wrapped about two thirds of the way around the eastern and northern sides of the center of circulation.  Upper level outflow from Tropical Storm Fernanda, which is farther west and an upper level low northwest of Greg were generating strong southerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the tropical storm.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear over Tropical Storm Greg.  The upper low appears to be moving farther away from Greg.  Tropical Storm Greg is moving over water where the SST is near 28°C.  If the vertical shear diminishes and the circulation organizes, then there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to allow Greg to intensify into a hurricane.

A subtropical ridge north of Greg is steering the tropical storm toward the west.  A general westerly motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  Tropical Storm Greg could take a path similar to the track of Tropical Storm Fernanda.

Active East Pacific With Fernanda, Greg and TD 8E

The tropical Eastern North Pacific Ocean continued to be very active on Tuesday with Hurricane Fernanda, Tropical Storm Greg and Tropical Depression Eight-E.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 134.4°W which put it about 1375 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Fernanda was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 110.1°W which put it about 490 miles (785 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Greg was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 119.9°W which put it about 860 miles (1385 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  It was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Although Hurricane Fernanda is the strongest of the three tropical cyclones over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, it is slowly weakening as it moves over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures  (SSTs).  Hurricane Fernanda is over water where the SSTs are near 26.5°C and it will move over cooler water as it moves west toward Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Greg strengthened on Tuesday as it moved over water where the SSTs are near 29°C.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  Additional showers and thunderstorms formed closer to the center.  Greg is also expected to move west as it moves south of a subtropical ridge.

The future of Tropical Depression Eight-E is less certain.  Upper level divergence from Hurricane Fernanda is creating strong vertical wind shear over the stop of the depression.  The strong wind shear is causing the circulation of the depression to be poorly organized.  There are few showers and thunderstorms in the northern portion of the circulation because of the strong shear.  The stronger upper level winds could shear the top of the circulation away from the lower level circulation of the depression.  It is also possible that Tropical Storm Greg could catch up to the depression and absorb the remnants of the depression into its circulation.