A potential risk posed by Hurricane Kay caused the government of Mexico to issue a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the coast of Baja California. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kay was located at latitude 18.8°N and longitude 111.0°W which put it about 290 miles (470 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Kay was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos to Santa Rosalia, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning included Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Rosalia to Bahia De Los Angeles, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Eugenia to San Jose De Las Palmas, Mexico.

Hurricane Kay strengthened slowly on Tuesday afternoon. An eye appeared intermittently at the center of Kay’s circulation. A partial ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye. The strongest storms were in the southeastern part of the ring and that was where the strongest winds were occurring. Most of the thunderstorms were in bands in the southern half of Hurricane Kay. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Kay’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Kay. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Kay will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Kay will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered over the Southwest U.S. The upper level ridge will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Kay’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will slow the rate of intensification, but Hurricane Kay is likely to strengthen during the next 24 hours. Kay will move closer to the axis of the ridge later on Wednesday. The upper level winds are weaker near the axis of the ridge and the wind shear will decrease. Hurricane Kay will intensify faster when the wind shear decreases. Kay could strengthen to a major hurricane, when the wind shear decreases.

Hurricane Kay will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Kay toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kay will approach the west coast of Baja California south of Punta Eugenia on Thursday morning. Kay could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Baja California. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.