Tropical Storm Nadine formed over the Northwest Caribbean Sea east of Belize on Friday night. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 87.3°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east of Belize City, Belize. Nadine was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City,, Belize to Cancun, Mexico. The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cozumel.
A low pressure system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen intensified during Friday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nadine. The circulation around Tropical Storm Nadine exhibited much more organization on Saturday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Nadine’s circulation. The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Nadine. Storms near the center of Nadine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the pressure to decrease.
The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Nadine was asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) in the northern side of Nadine’s circulation. The winds in the southern side of Tropical Storm Nadine were blowing at less than tropical Storm force.
Tropical Storm Nadine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Nadine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical disturbance. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent the intensification. Tropical Nadine will intensify during the next few hours.
Tropical Storm Nadine will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern United States. The high pressure system will steer Nadine toward the west during the nest 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nadine will make landfall on the coast of Belize in a few hours.
Tropical Storm Nadine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.