A disturbance over the Northwest Caribbean Sea designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 85.7°W which put the center about 165 miles (265 km) east of Belize City, Belize. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize, City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico.
A tropical disturbance over the Northwest Caribbean Sea exhibited more organization on Friday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen. The tropical disturbance had a large counterclockwise circulation, but there was not a well defined low level center of circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of the tropical disturbance. Bands in the southern and western parts of the disturbance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The tropical disturbance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical disturbance. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit the formation of a tropical cyclone. However, the wind shear may not be enough to prevent the formation of a tropical cyclone. Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen could strengthen to a tropical storm on Saturday.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern United States. The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the west-northwest during the nest 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will make landfall on the coast of Belize on Saturday afternoon.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.