Typhoon Bavi continued to move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan on Wednesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 129.6°E which put the center about 605 miles (975 km) southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan. Bavi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.
The cumulative effects of multiple eyewall replacement cycles caused Typhoon Bavi to weaken on Wednesday. The most recent inner eyewall weakened and a much larger eye with a diameter of 70 miles (110 km) formed at the center of Bavi’s circulation. The large eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Typhoon Bavi. Storms near the center of Bavi generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere. So, the surface pressure increased again on Wednesday.
The effects of the multiple eyewall replacement cycles also created a very large circulation around typhoon Bavi. Winds to typhoon force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 335 miles (540 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 54.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 78.5. Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Katrina when Katrina hit Mississippi in 2005. Typhoon Bavi is much larger than Katrina was.
Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be somewhat unfavorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Typhoon Bavi will move into a region of drier air that is east of Taiwan. The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the northwestern part of Bavi’s circulaiton. Typhoon Bavi is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours because of the drier air and the lingering effects of the eyewall replacement cycles.
Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands in 36 hours. The center of Bavi will be near northeastern Taiwan in 48 hours.
Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands and to Taiwan. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Typhoon Bavi could cause a storms surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along the coast of the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan.