Tropical Storm Gonzalo is moving through an environment favorable for intensification and it has become a hurricane.  At. 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Hurricane Gonzalo was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 62.9°W which put it about 20 miles southeast of St. Martin and about 140 miles east-southeast of St. Thomas.  Gonzalo was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 75 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure decreased to 984 mb.

Gonzalo is moving over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) that are warmer than 29°C.  An eye has formed and there appears to be well developed upper level outflow to pump out mass.  Conditions favor further intensification and Gonzalo could reach Major Hurricane intensity.  There is an upper level low to the northeast of Gonzalo, but it does not appear to be generating significant wind shear.  In fact, the upper level outflow from Gonzalo appears to flowing over the top of the upper low.

Gonzalo is moving northwest as it curves around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the central Atlantic.  It is likely to gradually turn more toward the north as it gets to the western end of the high.  Numerical models are indicating that a large upper level trough that is contributing to severe weather over parts of the eastern U.S. will move eastward and turn Gonzalo to the northeast later in the week.

Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the British Virgin Islands and St. Martin.  Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, the U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Maartin and Anguilla.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Eustatius, Barbuda, Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis and Monteserrat.