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Typhoon Meari Passing Northwest of the Marianas

Typhoon Meari moved northwest of the Marianas on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Meari was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 143.2°E which put it about 240 miles (390 km) west-northwest of Agrihan.  Meari was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Typhoon Meari strengthened on Saturday.  An eye appeared on visible satellite imagery.  The eyewall is thicker on the southwestern side and thinner on the northeastern side.  There are also more rainbands in the southwestern part of the circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extend out about 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms around the core of Typhoon Meari are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.

Typhoon Meari will be moving through a favorable environment for another 12 to 24 hours.  Meari is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The typhoon is moving along the transition zone between an upper level trough to its west and an upper level ridge to its east.  There are southwesterly winds blowing across the western side of Typhoon Meari, but those winds are actually enhancing the upper level divergence.  Vertical wind shear will increase when the upper level trough moves closer to the typhoon and Meari will start to weaken early next week.

The upper level trough is steering Typhoon Meari toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Meari will pass northwest of the northernmost Marianas.  Meari will pass southeast of Iwo To as it moves toward the northern Pacific.

Tropical Storm Meari Intensifies Into a Typhoon

A well organized core developed at the center of Tropical Storm Meari on Friday and it intensified into a typhoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Meari was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 140.0°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) west-northwest of Saipan.  Meari was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A strong center of circulation finally developed within a broader area of low pressure that contained Tropical Storm Meari.  An inner rainband wrapped around the center and an eye appeared on microwave satellite imagery.  The formation of a tight inner core allowed Meari to strengthen into a typhoon.  There are some rainbands east of the center of Typhoon Meari, but most of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring in bands south and west of the center.  Thunderstorms in the core of Typhoon Meari are now generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  Typhoon Meari is now a well organized tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Meari is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge is over Meari which is resulting in light winds in the upper levels and little vertical wind shear.  In fact the upper level ridge is enhancing the divergence generated by the typhoon.  Typhoon Meari should continue to strengthen during the next 24 hours.  Since a well formed core now exists at the center, a period of rapid intensification is quite possible.

Typhoon Meari is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the north-northeast.  That general motion is expected to continue for another day or so.  When Typhoon Meari gets farther north, westerly winds from the middle latitudes will push it toward the northeast more quickly.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Meari could be near the northernmost Marianas in about 36 hours.  Meari could be a strong typhoon at that time.  Although no warnings are currently in effect, people on Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan need to monitor the movement of Typhoon Meari.

Tropical Storm Meari Reorganizes West of Guam

The circulation designated as Tropical Storm Meari reorganized west of Guam on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Meari was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 139.0°E which put it about 415 miles (670 km) west of Guam.  Meari was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Meari initially formed as a smaller counterclockwise circulation within a much broader cyclonic circulation that stretched from the Northern Mariana Islands toward the Philippines.  The initial surface center weakened on Thursday and a new center of circulation organized northeast of the original center.  A primary rainband began to wrap around the southern and east side of the low level center.  Numerous other bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming within the broader cyclonic circulation.  More bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing southwest of the new center and fewer bands were northeast of the center.  The new center of circulation is still consolidating and Tropical Storm Meari still does not have a well developed core.

Although Meari is still not well organized, the tropical storm is moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  Tropical Storm Meari is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge is located over Tropical Storm Meari and the upper level winds are weak.  So, there is little vertical wind shear.  Warm water and little shear should allow Tropical Storm Meari to continue to intensify.  The lack of a well formed inner core and the large broad cyclonic circulation will slow the rate of strengthening.

The reformation of the center of circulation farther toward the northeast caused the forecast track guidance from numerical models to shift to a more northeasterly track.  If the current center of Tropical Storm Meari persists, it is located near the western end of a subtropical ridge.  Meari is expected to move toward the northeast around the western end of the ridge.  When Meari moves farther north, westerly winds in the middle latitudes will accelerate the tropical storm toward the northeast.

Tropical Storm Meari Forms East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Meari formed east of the Philippines on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Meari was located at latitude 13.0°N and longitude 136.4°E which put it about 1045 miles (1685 km) east of Manila, Philippines.  Meari was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A distinct center of circulation began to consolidate inside a broad area of low pressure located between Guam and the Philippines on Wednesday.  The center acquired enough characteristics of a tropical cyclone to be classified as Tropical Storm Meari by the Japan Meteorological Agency.  The low level center is still consolidating, but multiple spiral rainbands are forming.  More thunderstorms are forming south and west of the center and there are fewer storms north and east of center.

Tropical Storm Meari formed in an environment that is favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Meari is organizing beneath an upper level ridge which is an area of weaker winds.  There is little vertical wind shear and the upper level ridge is providing some upper level divergence.  Meari is likely to strengthen slowly while the core of the circulation organizes, but it could intensify more quickly once a well formed center exists.  Tropical Storm Meari could eventually strengthen into a typhoon.

A subtropical ridge located north of Meari is slowly steering the tropical storm toward the west.  That general motion is expected to continue during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Meari will move gradually closer to the Philippines.