Tropical Cyclone Guambe Moves away from Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Guambe moved away from Mozambique on Saturday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Guambe was located at latitude 29.1°S and longitude 38.1°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Guambe was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe appeared to develop concentric eyewalls on Saturday which caused the circulation to weaken. The maximum sustained wind speed decreased when the original, small inner eyewall dissipated. There were fewer thunderstorms around the center of Guambe on Saturday night. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of the circulation. Bands in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Guambe contained more showers and lower clouds. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Guambe will move into an environment that will be capable of sustaining a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Guambe will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C, but it will gradually move over colder water. An upper level trough south of Africa will approach Tropical Cyclone Guambe from the west. The trough will produce northwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Guambe. Those winds will cause more vertical wind shear when they reach Tropical Cyclone Guambe. The combination of more vertical wind shear and colder water will cause the structure of Guambe to being a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Tropical Cyclone Guambe toward the southeast during the next two days. On its anticipated track Guambe will move farther away from Mozambique. Tropical Cyclone Guambe is forecast to pass well to the south of Madagascar.