Tiny Danny Quickly Intensifies Into a Hurricane

Tiny Tropical Storm Danny intensified quickly during the past 12 hours and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to hurricane status in its 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory on Thursday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Danny was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 44.8°W which put it about 1090 miles (1755 km) east of the Windward Islands and about 2480 miles (4000 km) east-southeast of Miami.  Danny was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The core of Hurricane Danny organized quickly on Thursday.  An eye formed in the center of the circulation and a ring of thunderstorms developed around the eye.  The circulation around Danny is very small.  Hurricane force winds only extend out about 12 miles (19 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds only extend 60 miles (95 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) for Danny is only 4.2.

The environment around Danny remains complex.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C and the upper level winds are very light.  Upper level divergence is being produced by the thunderstorms around the eye.  On the other hand, slightly cooler SSTs and drier air are just to the north of Danny.  In addition, small hurricanes like Danny can be strongly affected by changes in their environment and they can intensify or weaken very quickly.  The environment would seem to support further intensification, but if Danny moves a little farther north, it could move into a more hostile environment.

Danny is being steered toward the west-northwest by the subtropical ridge to its north and that general steering pattern is expected to continue for another two or three days.  Late in the weekend the subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen and steer Danny more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Danny could be near the Leeward Islands in about four days and near Puerto Rico in about five days.