Formation of Tropical Depression 03E Prompts Mexico to Issue Warning for Coast

Tropical Depression 03E formed out of the cluster of thunderstorms formerly known as Invest 92E and the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the south coast.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression 03E was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 95.0°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (7 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca De Pijijiapan to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

A distinct center of circulation developed within an area of thunderstorms that had been lingering over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  More thunderstorms formed closer to the center of circulation and the National  Hurricane Center determined that there was sufficient organization to designate the system as Tropical Depression 03E.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in a partial band close to the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming in bands in other parts of the circulation.  The thunderstorms near the center have not yet begun to generate significant upper level divergence.

Tropical Depression 03E will be moving through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is generating southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating moderate vertical wind shear which is restricting upper level divergence to the east of the circulation.  The shear is inhibiting intensification.  Tropical Depression 03E will probably be able to extract enough energy to intensify into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression 03E is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  A generally northwesterly motion is forecast for the next 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression 03E could approach the southern coast of Mexico in 24 to 36 hours.  It could be a tropical storm by that time.  Tropical Depression 03E is likely to bring gusty winds, locally heavy rain and the potential for flash floods to parts of southern Mexico.