Tropical Cyclone Forms Over Eastern Arabian Sea

A tropical cyclone formed over the eastern Arabian Sea on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02A was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 70.8°E which put it about 400 miles (645 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  It was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system over the eastern Arabian Sea on Monday and the system exhibited sufficient organization to be designated a tropical cyclone.  The distribution of thunderstorms around the tropical cyclone was asymmetrical.  Most of the stronger thunderstorms were located in bands developing in the western half of the circulation.  The inner portions of a rainband was wrapping around the southern side of the center of circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of lower clouds and showers.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 60 miles (95 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 02A developed southwest of an upper level ridge.  The ridge was producing easterly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were the primary cause for the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.  The tropical cyclone will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.   Wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Cyclone 02A from strengthening.  The tropical cyclone will gradually intensify and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.  If an eye and eyewall form as part of an inner core and the wind shear decreases, then a period of rapid intensification could occur.

Tropical Cyclone 02A will move around the western end of the upper level ridge.  The ridge will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 02A could approach the coast of Gujarat within 72 hours.  it could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by that time.

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