Tropical Cyclone Nisarga Develops West of India

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga developed west of India on Tuesday.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 16.0° and longitude 71.2°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Nisarga was moving toward the north at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the Arabian Sea west of India strengthened on Tuesday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Nisarga.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Nisarga.  Numerous bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  The strongest rainbands were in the western half of the tropical cyclone.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nisarga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered over India.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent the intensification of Tropical Cyclone Nisagra.  Nisagra could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move around the western end of a high pressure system over India.  The high will steer Nisarga toward the north during the next 12 hours.  Nisarga will move more toward the north-northeast when it moves around the northwestern part of the high pressure system.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Nisarga could approach Mumbai in about 24 hours.  Nisarga could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches Mumbai.

Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Mumbai on Wednesday.  Nisarga could also cause a storm surge of  3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) in the area around Mumbai where the wind blows the water toward the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will drop locally heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra and southern Gujarat.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,