Strengthening Tropical Cyclone Nisarga neared Mumbai, India on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 72.4°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India. Nisarga was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Nisarga strengthened quickly on Tuesday night as it moved closer to the west coast of India. An eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) formed at the center of circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Nisarga. Storms near the core were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.
Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will move around the western end of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer Nisarga toward the northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will make landfall on the west coast of India south of Mumbai in a few hours.
Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will continue to intensify until it makes landfall. Nisarga will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge centered over India. The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of Nisarga. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be great enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Nisarga is likely to strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it makes landfall.
Tropical Cyclone Nisarga will bring strong winds to the west coast of India. Those winds will push water toward the coast and they could cause a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet (1 to 2 meters) near Mumbai and near where the center makes landfall. Nisarga will also drop heavy rain over parts of Maharashtra. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.