Hurricane Joaquin turned northward on Friday and it is starting to move slowly away from the Central Bahamas. However, it is still producing strong winds, heavy rain and storm surges on San Salvador and nearby islands. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located at latitude 24.1°N and longitude 74.7°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) west-northwest of San Salvador in the Central Bahamas and about 745 miles (1200 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Joaquin was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (205 km/h) which made Joaquin a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. There were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure was 942 mb. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.9.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Rum Cay, Long Island and San Salvador. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Island, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Bimini and Andros Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Andros Island and the Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged Islands and the Turks and Caicos. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda.
Hurricane Joaquin did not change a lot on Friday, although there were some indications that vertical wind shear may be starting to affect it. Microwave satellite imagery and aerial reconnaissance indicate that there is still and eye, although the eyewall is thinner on the north side. Most of the stronger thunderstorms are on the southern side of the circulation. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. may be creating stronger winds that are hitting Joaquin from the southwest. Those southwesterly winds may be limiting upper level divergence on that side of the hurricane. The hurricane is still over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. So, vertical wind shear is the only factor inhibiting intensification. The trough is expected to produce more vertical wind shear on Saturday, which could start to weaken Joaquin.
The upper level trough is starting to steer Joaquin slowly toward the north. The trough is expected to steer Joaquin toward the northeast at a faster rate during the next several days. Guidance from all of the numerical models has come into agreement that Joaquin will stay east of the U.S. Conditions in the Central Bahamas should improve on Saturday as Hurricane Joaquin moves farther away. The possibility that Joaquin could be near to Bermuda on Sunday prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for that island.