Tropical Cyclone Fehi developed over the Coral Sea near New Caledonia on Sunday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fehi was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 162.2°E which put it about 360 miles (580 km) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia. Fehi was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.
The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Fehi was not well organized for much of Sunday, but it exhibited signs of greater organization in recent hours. An upper level low near eastern Australia was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing over the top of the circulation. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear for much of Sunday, but the shear appeared to decrease on Sunday night. A distinct low level center of circulation was exposed on recent visible satellite images. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands south of the center of circulation. More bands of showers and low clouds seemed to be forming in the northern half of the circulation. A rainband appeared to be wrapping around the northern side of the circulation. There was some upper level divergence to the southeast of Tropical Cyclone Fehi.
Tropical Cyclone Fehi will be moving through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next day or two. Fehi is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. The upper level low will continue to cause vertical wind shear, but the shear may be small enough to allow for intensification. Tropical Cyclone Fehi could intensify during the next 24 hours. When Fehi moves farther south, it will move over much cooler water and the tropical cyclone will start to weaken. Tropical Cyclone Fehi could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone in two or three days.
The upper low near eastern Australia is steering Tropical Cyclone Fehi toward the south-southeast. A general motion toward the southeast is expected during the next two or three days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Fehi is forecast to pass west of New Caledonia. Although the center is likely to pass to the west of New Caledonia, rainbands on the eastern side of Fehi could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy could cause flash floods. Tropical Cyclone Fehi could approach New Zealand in about three days. Fehi could be a strong extratropical cyclone at that time.