Tag Archives: 20W

Krovanh Becomes a Typhoon Southeast of Iwo To

Krovanh continued to intensify rapidly on Wednesday and it reached typhoon status.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Krovanh was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 144.5°E which put it about 330 miles (530 km) southeast of Iwo To.  Krovanh was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Typhoon Krovanh remains in a very favorable environment.  It is over water with warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  The absence of significant vertical wind shear has allowed upper level divergence to continue to pump away mass in all directions.  The structure of the inner core of Krovanh improved as it intensified and the typhoon now has a well developed eye surrounded by a nearly complete eyewall.  The favorable environment could allow Krovanh to intensify for another 24 to 36 hours.  When the typhoon begins to approach latitude 30°N, it will begin to be affected by the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  The increased vertical wind shear will begin to weaken Krovanh.

Typhoon Krovanh is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge.  The ridge should steer Krovanh toward the northwest for another 24 hours.  When it reaches the western end of the ridge, the typhoon will start moving toward the north.  As the upper level westerly winds start to affect Krovanh, those winds will accelerate it toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Krovanh could be approaching Iwo To in about 24 hours and it could be near Chichi Jima in about 36 hours.  Krovanh could be a strong typhoon when it passes those islands.

Tropical Storm Krovanh Organizing Quickly Near Northern Marianas

The circulation around Tropical Storm Krovanh is organizing quickly as it passes near the northern Marianas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Krovanh was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 148.1°E which put it about 170 miles (275 km) east-northeast of Agrihan in the northern Mariana Islands.  Krovanh was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan in the northern Marianas.

The circulation near the center of Krovanh organized quickly on Tuesday.  A primary spiral rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center and an eyelike feature has appeared intermittently on visible satellite imagery.  Additional rainbands are developing around the circulation.  The thunderstorms near the core of the tropical storm are producing upper level outflow in all directions which is pumping out mass and is allowing the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Krovanh is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  Upper levels winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  The environment is very favorable for further intensification and rapid intensification is likely.  Krovanh could become a typhoon within 24 hours and it could be a strong typhoon within several days.

A subtropical ridge located northeast of Krovanh is steering the tropical storm toward the northwest.  That general steering pattern is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.  After that time Krovanh will reach the western end of the subtropical ridge and it will turn toward the north.  On its anticipated track Krovanh will pass through the extreme northern Marianas on Wednesday and it be approaching Iwo To in about 48 hours.  Krovanh could be a strong typhoon at that time.