Tropical Cyclone Enawo Intensifies Into Equivalent of a Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Enawo intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Enawo was located at latitude 13.9°S and longitude 56.3°E which put it about 475 miles (765 km) north of St. Denis, La Reunion.  Enawo was moving toward the south at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (155 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and there was evidence of an eye on microwave satellite imagery.  A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye.  Additional bands of thunderstorms were rotating around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping out mass in all directions.  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Enawo is relatively small and winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Enawo will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Enawo will continue to intensify and it could intensify rapidly for a time.  Tropical Cyclone Enawo is likely to become the equivalent of a major hurricane within 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Enawo was in an area where the steering currents were weak and it did not move much on Saturday.  A subtropical ridge east of Enawo is forecast to strengthen and extend westward.  When the ridge strengthens, it is expected to steer Tropical Cyclone Enawo toward the west-southwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Enawo could approach the coast of northeast Madagascar in 48 to 72 hours.  It could be a strong, dangerous tropical cyclone at that time.