Tropical Storm Tembin dropped heavy rain on Mindanao on Thursday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Tembin was located at latitude 7.9°N and longitude 126.1°E which put it near Monkayo, Philippines. Tembin was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.
Tropical Storm Tembin intensified on Thursday before it made landfall on Mindanao. More thunderstorms developed near the core of the circulation and those storms generated stronger upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and the wind speed to increase. Although the circulation became much better organized, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. There were far fewer thunderstorms forming in the eastern half of the circulation.
The center of Tropical Storm Tembin will be moving across Mindanao for another day or so. The mountains on the island will disrupt the lower levels of the circulation and increased friction will slow the wind speed. Tropical Storm Tembin will weaken while the center is over Mindanao. However, the middle and upper parts of the circulation are likely to remain intact, and Tropical Storm Tembin will move through a favorable environment when it reaches the Sulu Sea. Tembin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level ridge north of Tropical Storm Tembin is producing easterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation. The winds in the middle and lower levels are also blowing from the east and the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Tembin once the center gets back over water. Temping could strengthen into a typhoon when it reaches the South China Sea.
The ridge north of Tembin is steering the tropical storm toward the west-southwest. A general motion toward the west is expected during the next two to three days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Tembin will move east to west over Mindanao during the next 24 hours. Afterwards, Tropical Storm Tembin will move across the Sulu Sea toward Palawan. Tembin could be near Palawan in about 48 hours and it could be over the South China Sea shortly thereafter.
Tropical Storm Tembin represents a serious hazard for Mindanao and nearby locations in the southern Philippines. Tembin is dropping heavy rain and it has the potential to cause serious floods. Water levels could rise quickly and flash floods could develop. Saturated soils could result in mudslides in areas of steeper terrain.
Farther to the west, Tropical Storm Kai-tak continued to move across the South China Sea. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Kai-tak was located at latitude 5.7°N and longitude 106.9°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia. Kai-tak was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.