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Major Hurricanes Madeline and Lester Moving Toward Hawaii

Hurricanes Madeline and Lester intensified quickly on Monday into Major Hurricanes as they moved toward Hawaii.  The approach of Hurricane Madeline prompted the Central Pacific Hurricane Center to issue a Hurricane Watch for Hawaii County.  Both hurricanes have the potential to affect the weather around Hawaii during the next few days.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Madeline was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 145.5°W which put it about 630 miles (1015 km) east of Hilo, Hawaii.  Madeline was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (220 km/h).  That made Hurricane Madeline the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  The minimum surface pressure was 966 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Lester was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 130.5°W which put it about 1375 miles (2210 km) west of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lester was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  That made Hurricane Lester a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Both Hurricanes Madeline and Lester are relatively compact hurricanes and the winds to hurricane force only extend out about 30 miles (50 km) from the center of circulation.  In Hurricane Madeline the Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 32.0.  Hurricane Lester is stronger, but slightly smaller.  The HII for Hurricane Lester is 25.1, while HSI is 10.3 and HWISI is 35.4.

Both hurricanes have well formed symmetrical eyes surrounded by rings of tall thunderstorms.  Each is producing well developed upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Hurricane Madeline has more spiral rainbands, and Hurricane Lester shows some indications that the structure might be assuming more of the shape of an annular hurricane.

Hurricanes Madeline and Lester responded to a favorable environment by intensifying rapidly on Monday.  The maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Madeline increased from 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) during the past 24 hours.  The maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Lester increased from 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h) to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) during the past 24 hours.

Hurricanes Madeline and Lester will remain in a favorable environment during the short term.  They are moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near 27.5°C.  The upper level winds are light and there is little vertical wind shear.  Thus, both hurricanes could maintain their intensity for another 12 to 24 hours.  When the hurricanes move closer to Hawaii, they will move over slightly cooler SSTs.  In addition, an upper level trough approaching from the northwest could increase the vertical wind shear later this week.  Hurricane Lester may also move over some cooler water mixed to the surface by Hurricane Madeline.

A subtropical ridge is steering Hurricanes Madeline and Lester toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Madeline could approach Hawaii in a couple of days.  Hurricane Lester could approach Hawaii in about five days.

 

Tropical Storm Lester Forms West of Mexico

Tropical Storm Lester became the 12th named tropical storm to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during 2016 on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Lester was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 113.4°W which put it about 470 miles (760 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Lester was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Lester formed when a distinct center of circulation developed within a tropical wave.  The core of the tropical storm is still consolidating.  There are thunderstorms near the center of circulation and there are spiral bands rotating around the core of Tropical Storm Lester.  The thunderstorms near the center are generating upper level divergence which is pumping away may to the south of the tropical storm.  There are hints of the possible formation of an eye on some satellite images.

Tropical Storm Lester is moving through an environment that is generally favorable for intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is around 30°C.  An upper level ridge northwest of Lester is generating northerly winds which are blowing across the top of the tropical storm.  The northerly winds are producing some vertical wind shear, but the shear is only slowing the intensification process.  Tropical Storm Lester is expected to continue to intensify and it could become a hurricane.

A subtropical ridge is steering Tropical Storm Lester toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Lester will move farther away from Mexico and it currently poses no threat to land.

Trio of Cat. 4 Hurricanes Churn Across the Pacific

A trio of powerful Category 4 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson Scale churned across the Central and Eastern North Pacific on Saturday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Ignacio was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 147.6°W which put it about 525 miles (845 km) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.  Ignacio was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Jimena was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 127.5°W which put it about 1330 miles (2140 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Jimena was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Kilo was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 176.2°W which put it about 680 miles (1095 km) south of Midway Island.  Kilo was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Ignacio is the only one of the three powerful hurricane to pose an imminent threat to land.  On its anticipated track Ignacio could be northeast of the Big Island of Hawaii in about 48 hours.  Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Hawaii County and Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe.  An upper level trough passing north of Hawaii will cause westerly winds and increasing vertical wind shear over Ignacio as it moves closer to Hawaii.  Ignacio should weaken but it could still be a hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Hawaii.  Given the size of the circulation around Ignacio, Tropical Storm Watches were issued for some of the islands.

Jimena may be the most well organized of the three hurricanes.  It has concentric eyewalls and a very symmetrical structure.  Eyewall replacement cycles will cause fluctuations in the intensity of Jimena.  However, it is in a very favorable environment and it could reach Category 5 intensity at some point.  Fortunately, Jimena is about 1500 miles (2420 km) east of Ignacio and it is a long way from any land area.

After days when strong vertical wind shear kept Kilo a weak disorganized tropical depression, it intensified very rapidly during the past 48 hours.  Kilo is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures  and it could intensify a little more.  Kilo is not currently a threat to any land.